House Republicans averted disaster Tuesday night when veteran Matt Van Epps won the special election in Tennessee’s 7th District.
But Van Epps’ significant underperformance will do little to quell fears that the GOP is headed for a bruising midterm elections next year.
As we’ve noted many times, President Donald Trump won this district, which includes a slice of Nashville and outlying rural areas, by 22 points in 2024. Former Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.), the district’s last incumbent, won it by roughly the same margin.
Van Epps beat Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn on Tuesday by 9 points.
An ominous environment. The fact that Republicans spent millions of dollars to hold onto a safe red seat is already a win for Democrats.
It’s important to remember that this special election is a snapshot of the current political environment, which is undoubtedly positive for Democrats.
“Tonight’s results make it clear: No House Republican’s reelection should be considered safe next November,” CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC, said.
Let’s talk about the candidates. In numerous closer-than-expected special elections, Republicans have privately trashed their nominee in the run-up to Election Day. It’s been a tradition from Rick Saccone in Pennsylvania in 2018 to now-Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) earlier this year.
But no one was disparaging Van Epps, a West Point graduate and combat veteran. And Behn was not a particularly moderate Democrat.
A longtime party activist, the 36-year-old Behn had staked liberal positions on policing and had been dubbed “the AOC of Tennessee.” The fact that she could massively overperform suggests the overall political environment is truly in a dangerous place for the GOP.
However, there’s no guarantee this will hold true 11 months from now when the midterms roll around.
Messaging. Both parties ran ads that were strongly focused on affordability. We expect to see a lot of attention on rising costs in 2026 messaging and a lot of finger-pointing at who caused it.
Other possible tea leaves: Trump didn’t take a starring role in ads. Nor did Republicans go out of their way to tout recent legislative achievements.
Despite this, Van Epps said that “running with Trump is how you win” following his victory.
Morale. It’s not fun to be a House Republican in 2025. That’s clear from the resignations, including the one that precipitated this special election.
Speaker Mike Johnson needs to stem those departures and retirements. Luckily for him – so far – most of the House Republicans heading for the exits are in safe red seats.
