The White House is exploring having Texas redraw its congressional map to create more GOP-friendly House seats in 2026.
Hardly anyone in the Texas GOP delegation seems on board with the plan. Every Texas Republican lawmaker we spoke to declined to comment on the record, and many told us privately that they have no interest in blowing up the Lone Star State’s districts.
Redistricting is always uncomfortable for members. But this situation is especially so. Republicans control 25 of the state’s 38 districts. Incumbents would need to give up reliably red voters to create more Republican districts but not so many that they could lose their seats. That’s a hard balance to strike.
“With any state, if you’re looking at redistricting, there may be states where you can get additional seats, but you don’t want to stretch it too thin where you make a safe seat vulnerable,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, who served on the redistricting committee in Louisiana for 12 years.
Not to mention, the midterms are historically bad for the party that controls the White House.
This is a huge power play for President Donald Trump. Redistricting is often a parochial affair. In the past, state legislators have refused to cow to national party leaders. But that was in the pre-Trump era.
It’s hard to imagine congressional leaders, Texas Republicans or GOP Gov. Greg Abbott telling Trump no. The Texas delegation will meet Thursday – as we scooped in Midday Tuesday – and a representative from the Trump administration is expected to be in attendance. James Blair, the White House deputy chief of staff for legislative, political and public affairs, has been involved in this push.
Targeted Democrats: No one we talked to seems to have a framework in mind for a new Texas map. Adding two more red seats is a lot more feasible than adding five.
The most obvious Democratic targets are in South Texas: Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar. Trump carried those seats by 4 points and 7 points, respectively.
Republicans could try to make those districts more red. But remember, GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz’s district is wedged in between the two Democrats. Texas Democrats have targeted De La Cruz in the past.
Republicans could also try to unpack one or more of the three deep-blue seats they created in 2021 in Austin, Houston and Dallas.
But Texas GOP leaders created these new districts for a reason — to shore up Republicans in the surrounding suburbs. For example, unraveling the Houston-area seat of Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher means GOP Reps. Wesley Hunt and Troy Nehls could be forced to take on some of her Democratic voters.
2024 was a great year for the GOP, particularly in Texas. Latinos swung hard to the right. So much so Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar’s El Paso seat moved nearly 20 points toward Trump between 2020 and 2024. She could be a target, too.
The argument for. Texas has trended red since the 2021 redistricting. Some Republican incumbents have GOP voters to spare. But Republicans also don’t want to use what could be an electoral high-water mark to craft their congressional maps.
Democrats need to pick up only a few seats to flip the House. This redraw, along with another in Ohio, could stymie the Democratic path to the majority. Some Republican operatives see this is a no-brainer.
Reality Check: A lot has to happen to make this a reality. First, the Texas legislature is only scheduled to meet every two years, and the session ended on June 2. Abbott would have to call a special session, and legislators would have to put their summers on hold to travel back to Austin.
Oh, and Democrats could flee the state and deny the legislature a quorum as they did back in 2003 when Republicans tried a similar move. Republicans eventually were successful, however.
