Happy primary day to those in Virginia and Oklahoma! Here’s what we’re watching today.
Will the House Freedom Caucus chair lose reelection?
Virginia’s 5th District Republican primary has united a fascinating group of odd bedfellows in an effort to unseat House Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.). During his short stint in the House, Good has made plenty of enemies.
Good initially endorsed Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis for president, angering former President Donald Trump. So Trump backed Good’s primary rival, state Sen. John McGuire.
Good was also one of eight House Republicans who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. So McCarthy and his wealthy allies are funding attack ads bashing Good. Plus, a contingent of mainstream House Republicans interested in governing is endorsing McGuire.
Good is a consistent thorn in leadership’s side and an aggressive fiscal hawk. So top House Republicans in the national security space are backing McGuire as well, including House Armed Services Committee Chair Mike Rogers (R-Ala.).
McGuire has also significantly outraised Good.
There’s a real chance Good could lose today. It would be a major embarrassment for the Freedom Caucus and yet more evidence that Trump’s endorsement is the most consequential asset you can have in GOP politics.
Can the House Appropriations Committee chair stave off a right-wing challenge?
Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), the new chair of the House Appropriations Committee, is engaged in an expensive battle to defeat businessman Paul Bondar. Bondar is attacking Cole as too willing to compromise with Democrats.
Bondar only recently moved to Oklahoma from Texas. Cole plays this up constantly in his messaging, painting Bondar as an out-of-stater. Cole is endorsed by Trump, but Bondar is running the more MAGA-ish insurgent campaign.
Cole is generally well-liked by Democrats who appreciate his old-school politics. Bondar is seizing on this and recently ran an ad criticizing Cole’s vote against censuring Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).
Bondar has poured millions of dollars of his own money into ads. GOP insiders are on the lookout for a massive upset. If Cole doesn’t clear the 50% margin, he faces an August runoff against Bondar.
Who will fight for Virginia’s battleground 7th District?
Rep. Abigail Spanberger’s (D-Va.) decision to run for governor means that her toss-up House seat is up for grabs in November. On the GOP side, Derrick Anderson is backed by Speaker Mike Johnson. Another Republican, Cameron Hamilton, is running a more insurgent campaign and is supported by many in the Freedom Caucus.
On the Democratic side, former national security official Eugene Vindman is the leader in the money game over a variety of local officials like state Del. Briana Sewell and former state Del. Elizabeth Guzman. Vindman was a key figure in the first impeachment effort against Trump.
Which Democrat will succeed Wexton?
Retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) has endorsed state Sen. Suhas Subramanyam to succeed her. But the primary also features eleven other Democrats vying for the nomination in the blue-leaning 10th District. Other favorites in the Democratic primary include state Del. Dan Helmer and former Virginia House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn.
— Max Cohen
