Key Democrats feel their chances of retaking the House have significantly improved now that Vice President Kamala Harris is at the top of their presidential ticket. But that optimism is especially pronounced in her home state of California.
The path to the majority likely runs through the deep blue states of California and New York. Speaker Mike Johnson will make a multi-day swing through California next week, while House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was recently in the state and has more stops planned over the August recess. Remember, with all vacancies filled, Democrats only need to flip a net of four seats to win control of the chamber.
The belief among senior Democrats is that Harris will help activate their base and boost fundraising, particularly in California districts where there are more young voters, women and voters of color. Think Los Angeles, Orange County, Palm Springs, San Diego, etc.
If Democrats get more turnout among those groups — whom they feared would stay home if President Joe Biden was the nominee — then they don’t need to win over as many white, male or non-college-educated voters.
“I have seen a dramatic increase in energy, enthusiasm, support in my district. Especially among the millennials and the Gen Zers,” Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) told us. “California Democrats are thrilled to have a California Democrat on the ticket.”
Levin, who represents a coastal district north of San Diego, was one of the battleground Democrats who called on Biden to drop out of the race following his disastrous June 27 debate performance.
And with Harris already a known quantity in the Golden State, Democrats think it’ll be harder for Republicans to use her as a cudgel against their California candidates.
“They’re going to try and tie people to Kamala. That’s not as scary of a proposition in California, where folks are already familiar with her,” said a Democratic political consultant involved with several key California races. “There’s just a comfortability factor there across the board.”
Democrats say they have already seen signs of newfound enthusiasm on the ground. We’re told Democratic candidate Derek Tran, who is vying to unseat Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), is opening a second field office next week to help capture the buzz. It’s a district Biden won in 2020 and covers parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.
Even some Republicans are concerned about Harris’ value in the state. One high-level GOP strategist is conducting a focus group this week to assess Harris’ impact on the seat represented by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.), whose sprawling district was redrawn after the 2020 census to include more wealthy and liberal areas in Palm Springs.
Calvert’s Democratic opponent, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins, is leaning into Harris and her ties to California, where she not only served as a senator but also the state’s attorney general.
“It’s a great parallel to have a fellow prosecutor at the top of the ticket,” said Rollins, who lost to Calvert last cycle. “That contrast against a convicted felon, and frankly my own opponent… is something that energizes people in our community.”
Still, that doesn’t mean Democrats are going to shift their campaign strategies to center around Harris. Notably, several California Democrats in battleground races have kept their distance from presidential politics, including Rep. Josh Harder (D-Calif.), who is planning to skip the party convention next week, and Rudy Salas, who is trying to topple Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in the San Joaquin Valley.
The GOP view: Republicans believe it’s still too early to quantify Harris’ down-ballot impact in the state, noting she is still in a honeymoon phase and that the real work to define her has not yet begun.
But Republican strategists feel like they have plenty to work with when it comes to Harris’ positions on issues like crime, the economy and border security, particularly salient issues in California. They also don’t see evidence that holds a favorable image in every competitive California race.
Still, a big part of the GOP strategy, particularly in central California, will be tying Democratic candidates to the California Assembly in Sacramento, not litigating the top of the presidential ticket. Several Democratic candidates in competitive races have served in the state legislature, including Salas and Adam Gray, who is once again trying to knock off Rep. John Duarte (R-Calif.).
Also potentially working to the GOP’s advantage: a proposition on the ballot this November to increase the punishment for some drug and theft crimes.
“Kamala Harris is the embodiment of the far-left San Francisco liberal policies that broke California and turned off voters in swing districts,” NRCC National Press Secretary Will Reinert said.
All in all, Republicans feel like the political environment has returned to where it was prior to the Biden debate fiasco. Ultimately, Republicans think these House races will come down to the candidates and believe they still have an edge there.
– Melanie Zanona
