All cycle, House Democrats have bragged about their fundraising advantage over the GOP. In the home stretch of the campaign, that financial upper hand is paying dividends in a major way.
In 22 of the 25 toss-up House races, Democrats outspent Republicans on the airwaves in the month of October. This is a wild stat.
We had our friends at AdImpact run an analysis of all spending in the most competitive House campaigns from Oct. 1 to Oct. 29. This includes investment from individual campaigns, House Majority PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund, the NRCC and DCCC, in addition to other outside groups. The disparity was stark.
Across the 25 tightest House races, Democrats have cumulatively spent $35 million more on ads in the past month than Republicans have. For those counting at home, Democratic groups have spent more than $173 million while GOP groups have spent nearly $138 million, per AdImpact.
During a stretch when voters are the most focused on what’s happening in the election, it’s an undoubted boost for Democrats seeking to flip the House.
It also shows once again the vast financial resources that are poured into modern House races. These totals don’t include Senate races or the presidential contest, which may overlap the House campaigns.
The Democratic advantage: The top five widest spending margins in the races from the past month favor Democrats.
In Washington’s 3rd District, groups backing Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez spent $4.1 million more on ads than pro-Joe Kent groups. Organizations backing Democrat Eugene Vindman outspent supporters of Republican Derrick Anderson by $3.8 million in Virginia’s 7th District.
There was a $3.3 million Democratic spending advantage in both New York’s 4th and 19th Districts, where vulnerable GOP Reps. Anthony D’Esposito and Marc Molinaro are running against Democrats Laura Gillen and Josh Riley. And in Arizona’s 1st District, Democrat Amish Shah had the advantage of $2.7 million over groups supporting Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.).
In 15 of the 25 toss-up races, Democrats enjoy a spending lead of $1 million or more.
The only toss-up races where the GOP has the spending advantage are California’s 22nd District, Iowa’s 3rd District and Nebraska’s 2nd District. GOP Reps. David Valadao (Calif.), Zach Nunn (Iowa) and Don Bacon (Neb.) respectively are the incumbents here.
The race with the tightest margin is the matchup between Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.) and Derek Tran in California’s 45th District, where pro-Tran forces have spent around $50,000 more in the past month. Another close margin is Nunn’s lead over pro-Lanon Baccam forces, which was roughly $100,000 in October.
The Tran-Steel matchup was also the most expensive race based on ad spending in October, combining for $23 million in total investment. The second most expensive race was the $20.3 million spent in California’s 27th District, where pro-George Whitesides groups spent $11.3 million and organizations supporting Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) poured in $9 million.
Michigan’s 7th District came in at the third priciest with $19 million spent last month, with Republican Tom Barrett getting $9.2 million in support and Democrat Curtis Hertel receiving $9.8 million.
A disclaimer: Money isn’t everything in politics. Just because House Democrats have the advantage on the air doesn’t mean they’re a shoo-in to win a majority. While Democrats are seen as the slim favorites in November, few election observers expect either party to secure a majority of more than five House seats. This is a very closely contested election and could go either way.
Plus, this data doesn’t encompass the final week of ad spending, where things could ratchet up even more.
But the ad spending advantage is the culmination of the impressive job done by the DCCC, House Majority PAC and individual Democratic campaigns this cycle. Democrats have crushed their House GOP counterparts in the money game this cycle and are now reaping the rewards.
What voters are seeing: We’ve chronicled how Republicans and Democrats are messaging on the air this cycle. In the race’s final weeks, GOP ad-makers are turning to slamming Democrats on transgender issues. Democrats, for their part, are taking a page from their 2022 playbook by flooding the zone with abortion rights attacks on Republicans.
Crypto cash: Outside of the typical groups spending in the House battleground, the pro-crypto Fairshake PAC is a major player. The PAC spent $5.5 million on ads last month backing GOP Reps. Juan Ciscomani (Ariz.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Valadao, Steel and Nunn. The group also supported one Democrat: Alaska Rep. Mary Peltola.
