We’re now one week from Election Day. Here’s a good primer on where the presidential race stands. It’s as close as you think. The Senate landscape got rocked on Monday when a poll showed independent Dan Osborn within striking distance of knocking off Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.). Senior Republicans are rushing to Nebraska to try to boost Fischer. Races in Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are all coming down to the wire.
But this morning, we’re going to focus on the fight for control of the House. Key players in both parties say the election is on a knife’s edge, with dozens of races currently polling within the margin of error. Whichever party takes control of the chamber will likely only enjoy a narrow majority. That makes every single seat critical.
The leaders. Speaker Mike Johnson and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have been circling the country for the last six weeks, raising hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign donations while trying to sell the country on their respective agendas.
For Johnson and Jeffries, the stakes personally couldn’t be higher. The 52-year-old Johnson ascended to the speaker’s chair following the stunning ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in October 2023. He’s aligned himself and House Republicans even more closely with former President Donald Trump — if that’s possible — in a bid to save the often chaotic GOP majority, as well as hold onto his own job.
Jeffries, 54, is seeking to become the first Black speaker in U.S. history. Jeffries helped save Johnson’s job from a Republican uprising when he didn’t do that with McCarthy. Now it’ll be seen how those momentous decisions play out.
How and where Johnson and Jeffries are spending these last weeks is telling. The two will even descend on the same district on the exact same day.
Sources tell us Johnson and Jeffries will both make campaign stops Friday in New York’s 19th District, where GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro is locked in a razor-tight race largely seen by both parties as a bellwether contest. Molinaro’s race against Democrat Josh Riley is rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter.
The seat could not only determine the House majority but also who wields the speaker’s gavel. So it’s no surprise that Johnson and Jeffries will spend their time there during the election’s critical final stretch.
Johnson has been to more than 235 cities in 40 states since becoming speaker. He’ll be in New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York, Louisiana, North Carolina and Virginia over the next week.
The state that sticks out to us on that list is Connecticut, where Republicans haven’t won a federal election since 2006. But Johnson will be in the great Nutmeg State to fundraise for GOP challenger George Logan, who is running against Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.). This fundraiser has been on the books for some time. Most Republicans think this race in the 5th District is out of reach for the GOP.
Of course, New Jersey has one marquee race — GOP Rep. Tom Kean against Democrat Sue Altman. Pennsylvania has a host of competitive races, including Democratic Rep. Susan Wild against Ryan MacKenzie, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright against Rob Bresnahan and GOP Rep. Scott Perry versus Janelle Stelson.
New York features a ton of competitive races: Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) versus former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-N.Y.), Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) versus John Avlon, Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.) versus Laura Gillen, Molinaro versus Riley and Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.) versus John Mannion.
North Carolina has Democratic Rep. Don Davis against Laurie Buckhout. And Virginia has Republican Derrick Anderson facing off against Democrat Eugene Vindman.
Jeffries will be in New York, as well. But he’s also heading to Michigan, the home of three competitive races: Republican Tom Barrett versus Democrat Curtis Hertel, Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet versus Republican Paul Junge and GOP Rep. John James versus Carl Marlinga.
Jeffries will travel to Alabama, too. Democrat Shomari Figures, a former Obama White House aide and Justice Department official, is favored to pick up a seat where minority voters make up nearly half the electorate.
Jeffries will have visited more than 30 states throughout the cycle and traveled 25,000 miles — or a trip around the Earth — from the middle of September through Nov. 5.
House leadership election. House Republicans announced they will hold their leadership elections on Nov. 13, as we reported nearly two weeks ago. The deadline for getting into a leadership race is Nov. 12 at noon. On Nov. 14 and Nov. 15, House Republicans will consider their conference rules.
