At the start of 2024, pro-Israel groups armed with significant war chests identified Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.) as particularly vulnerable incumbents.
And after the two most expensive House primaries in history, Bowman and Bush have both fallen to more mainstream Democratic primary challengers — the first two Squad members to ever lose reelection.
But that’s likely to be the end of this cycle’s anti-Squad primary funding wars. And left-wing groups are relieved that stiff challenges to other progressive, pro-Palestinian members haven’t materialized.
Bowman and Bush presented uniquely promising territory for anti-Squad forces in ways that other vehemently anti-Israel politicians didn’t. The individual scandals that hampered the two incumbents, combined with strong challengers who have local ties caught the attention of outside groups.
For instance, although Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has a primary next Tuesday, there’s been no similar groundswell of outside spending to boost her Democratic opponent, Don Samuels.
On television ad spending, AIPAC’s super PAC — United Democracy Project — spent a total of $18.3 million in Bowman’s and Bush’s races. A total of $12.3 million came to boost George Latimer over Bowman, while $6 million was allocated to help Wesley Bell take down Bush.
But according to AdImpact, UDP has reserved no money for TV ads in Omar’s primary. And fellow Squad member Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) won her primary without even attracting a primary opponent on the same day Bush lost.
The story here? Pro-Israel forces looking to shape the Democratic Party in their image are picking their fights carefully. The massive outlays in Bowman’s and Bush’s primaries show that once they identify which member or candidate to go after, these interest groups are ready to go all in. There’s not a similar appetite to spend in longshot fights. A lot of money in just a few races, versus a lot of money in a lot of races.
“Defeating an incumbent member of Congress is statistically the hardest thing to do in politics,” Mark Mellman, the head of Democratic Majority for Israel, told us. “This doesn’t happen very often, and so we’re not going to waste the donors’ money on races that we can’t win.”
DMFI PAC dedicated significant resources to knocking off Bush, who Mellman called “one of the most bellicose, vituperative anti-Israel figures in Congress.”
View from the left: Justice Democrats, the left-wing group closely associated with the Squad, believes that AIPAC hasn’t succeeded this cycle despite Bowman’s and Bush’s defeat.
Communications Director Usamah Andrabi identified Rep. Summer Lee’s (D-Pa.) primary victory as a setback for the pro-Israel group.
“The day Summer Lee won her primary was the day they failed at their cycle goal,” Andrabi asserted.
Andrabi noted that not one of the ads that UDP ran mentioned Israel. It’s a sign, in his eyes, that pro-Israel groups know their agenda isn’t popular with Democrats.
Looking forward, Andrabi didn’t rule out Justice Dems-backed challengers next cycle to Latimer and Bell.
“I don’t think anything’s off the table,” Andrabi said. “Next cycle, there’s a lot of incumbents who have been betraying the interests and needs of their community that should be put on watch.”
