In our interviews with the top two Senate leaders this week, November was on both their minds as the chamber prepared to break for the August recess.
With Republicans widely favored to win back control of the chamber, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell understandably feels good about his party’s chances. But Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says he’s still confident about some outside pickup opportunities.
Here are our top takeaways:
Texas and Florida: Schumer told us this week he thinks Democrats will pick up seats in 2024. In this unlikely scenario, Democrats would have to defeat either Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) or Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
“Go look at the numbers in Texas and Florida and see how close they are,” Schumer said. RealClearPolitics has Cruz up over Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) by an average of eight points, while Scott leads former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by an average of five points.
Schumer described Allred as a “great candidate.” He acknowledged Florida is a harder state to win in this cycle but added, “Don’t discount the abortion issue.” Voters in the Sunshine State will vote on a referendum guaranteeing the right to an abortion up until 24 weeks of pregnancy. Right now, Florida bans abortions starting at six weeks, before many women even know they’re pregnant.
McConnell, naturally, was dismissive of Schumer’s claim.
“I mean, Chuck is playing with the hand he’s dealt. I don’t think they’ve got a shot at any of our incumbents,” McConnell said. “And that’s not just me. Ask any political consultant around town.”
Lessons from 2022: Both McConnell and Schumer are taking lessons learned from the midterms into the fall.
For Schumer, the Democratic overperformance last cycle — when the party defended all its vulnerable incumbents and flipped Pennsylvania blue — gives him the confidence to tune out political prognosticators this time around.
“Two years ago, everyone said, ‘You’re going to lose four or five seats.’ I said, ‘No we’re not, I know what’s going on in those states. We’ll keep the Senate and maybe even gain a seat,’” Schumer recounted. “Now they’re saying, ‘Oh you’re gonna lose four or five seats.’”
In McConnell’s mind, the GOP failures of 2022 were all about candidate quality. The long-serving Republican leader believes this year’s recruiting class is far stronger.
Here’s McConnell slamming 2022 Republican Senate candidates Blake Masters, Herschel Walker and Don Bolduc:
“I think our candidates in Arizona and Georgia and New Hampshire were just simply unappealing to states that were truly competitive,” McConnell said. “And if you don’t have a good candidate, you can spend all your money and still lose.”
GOP pickup opportunities: McConnell noted Republicans enjoy a favorable map this cycle. In West Virginia, McConnell predicted, “We’re going to win” following the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.).
And McConnell hailed “fabulous candidates” in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Nevada.
Notably missing: Any mention of Kari Lake in Arizona, Eric Hovde in Wisconsin or Mike Rogers in Michigan.
Harris effect: McConnell batted away Democratic optimism that Vice President Kamala Harris will have any significant 2024 down-ballot impact, adding he thinks former President Donald Trump will boost Republican candidates in states they’re targeting.
“I think in the states that we’re focusing on, I can’t imagine our candidate not winning a substantial majority,” McConnell said, singling out Montana and Ohio. “Except for places like Pennsylvania, where it’s likely to be very close.”
More from McConnell:
