This week will tell us a lot about the state of Donald Trump’s presidency. There’ll be action on tariffs, elections and Trump’s legislative agenda. And an already nervous Wall Street will be watching closely.
First up, the House GOP leadership plans to use the House Rules Committee today to quash Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s (R-Fla.) discharge petition authorizing proxy voting for new and expectant mothers.
This is Speaker Mike Johnson trying to circumvent the will of the majority of the House. If he succeeds, it’s an example of the speaker using the enormous power afforded to him to thwart a loyal rank-and-file member. If Johnson fails, it’ll be an embarrassment. Here’s what the House is considering this week on the floor.
Second, on Tuesday, voters go to the ballot box in Florida and Wisconsin for two high-stakes elections that will provide an EKG of sorts on American voters.
Most important for you is the 6th District race in Florida between Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil to replace National Security Adviser Michael Waltz in the House. This is a seat Republicans should win by two dozen points. But Fine has been embarrassingly outraised. A St. Pete Poll showed Weil down by just four points.
Let’s be clear: Fine should win, and he likely will. But this shouldn’t be a race. Democratic anti-Trump energy is keeping it close.
Republicans complain Fine is a bad candidate who didn’t raise enough money. That may be true. But anything less than a 20-point victory should raise alarm bells in GOP leadership ranks and at NRCC HQ.
Third, on Wednesday, Trump will unveil tariffs on a whole set of countries, including but not limited to Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, anyone that buys oil from Venezuela and on cars made outside the United States. Trump hasn’t been entirely clear what tariffs he will put in place.
Trump aide Peter Navarro said on “Fox News Sunday” that auto import tariffs would bring in $100 billion per year. Other tariffs would reportedly net $600 billion each year for a decade. It’s impossible to assess whether these numbers are legitimate. But this will dominate both market chatter and Capitol Hill conversations all week.
Reconciliation. We scooped last week that Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Republicans during a closed-door meeting that he wants to get going on a compromise budget resolution as soon as this week. This is a key step in unlocking Trump’s agenda.
But there are major questions that need to be resolved for that to happen — and fast.
First, the Senate parliamentarian needs to decide whether Republicans can use a scoring method known as the “current policy baseline.” This is key to satisfying a goal of Thune’s — making the 2017 tax cuts permanent — by zeroing out the official cost.
Before that decision is handed down, Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough needs to huddle with GOP and Democratic aides for a final joint meeting.
We’re told that this meeting hasn’t yet been scheduled, which has raised serious questions about how quickly Senate Republicans can actually start this process. Once they have a ruling, Senate Republicans would still need to nail down final details for their tax committee instructions. MacDonough’s decision will guide how those instructions are written.
But along with procedural hurdles, there could be political ones. We reported last week that House and Senate leaders want to give the two chambers different spending cut targets — $3 billion minimum for the Senate, $1.5 trillion for the House. This is by design. It gives Republicans more time to figure out exact spending-cut numbers. It also gives them maximum flexibility for Byrd Rule compliance when finally drafting an actual bill.
But House deficit hawks could conclude the Senate isn’t serious enough about locking in big spending cuts and balk at the compromise resolution. If that happens, the Senate’s plans could shift or the two chambers could end up back in a standoff. Other details also need finalizing, like the specific debt-limit increase. House Republicans approved $4 trillion, while the Senate GOP has floated $5 trillion.
If Republicans’ strategy goes according to plan, the Senate’s first vote would be a motion to proceed to the House’s budget resolution, set at a simple-majority threshold. This unlocks 50 hours of debate, equally divided between Democrats and Republicans. At that point, a vote-a-rama begins, followed by a vote on the compromise budget resolution — the substitute — and then passage of the resolution.
So how soon could this actually begin? It’s safe to say nothing will happen until after Tuesday’s Senate GOP lunch and a tentative “Big Six” tax meeting. So, in theory, the Senate could start on Wednesday. But that’s only if they have a parliamentarian ruling, and if things don’t go sideways when lawmakers return today.
Here’s some news: As Republicans advance their budget resolution, there will be pressure from all sides to extend a mess of expiring provisions and programs. A coalition called Keep Americans Covered — focused on extending the 2021 enhanced premium tax credits for health insurance purchased through the Affordable Care Act marketplace — is launching a seven-figure ad campaign in D.C. and nationwide to push Republicans to act.
A couple of key Republicans have expressed support for keeping the enhanced subsidies. Watch the ad here.
