Congress’ health care battle continues on Wednesday when the House will take its first procedural vote on the Democratic discharge petition to extend the ACA enhanced premium tax credits for three years.
The procedural motion will pass. And the bill is expected to pass later this week. Four House Republicans signed the petition, hoping it would reignite Senate momentum toward an Obamacare deal after a pair of health care votes failed in the chamber last month.
Those hopes seem to be playing out, although there are still big obstacles to a deal and a very limited window to secure it. Open enrollment for ACA plans ends Jan. 15. Millions of Americans are already seeing their costs skyrocket or losing coverage entirely.
“The half-life of an opportunity for an agreement is, every week you lose about 50%,” Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Tuesday.
Obstacles to a deal. Any Senate agreement is likely to resemble the compromise plans moderates released late last year: a short-term extension with income caps and a minimum premium requirement. House Problem Solvers Caucus members and senators are set to meet Thursday to discuss details.
The dealmakers still face significant political hurdles and policy disputes.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said Tuesday any agreement that could get significant GOP backing would have to mandate minimum premium payments, expand health savings accounts and address Republicans’ concerns about the Hyde Amendment. Democrats aren’t supportive of any of those policies.
Republicans’ desire for new Hyde Amendment language continues to be the single biggest hangup in bipartisan negotiations.
President Donald Trump told House Republicans they need to “be a little flexible on Hyde.” That’s close to sacrilegious for Republicans, who have for years guarded Hyde, which prevents taxpayer money from being spent on abortion services.
Some moderates hope Trump’s comments will soften Republicans’ insistence on Hyde protections. That seems a bit far-fetched.
But any compromise would need to get more than the bare minimum support from rank-and-file Senate Republicans for Thune to put it on the floor or attach it to a broader legislative vehicle.
“There’s potentially a path forward,” Thune said. “But it’s something that’d have to get a big vote, and certainly a big vote among Republicans.”
For now, Democratic leaders aren’t coming off their position that a three-year clean extension is the path forward — something the Senate already rejected.
Democrats have been under pressure from their base to put up a fight, and they’ve found political success on health care. That could shift if a deal is within reach and looks capable of passing.
“Our mission right now is to make sure that we pass the straightforward extension of the Affordable Care Act tax credits this week, and then we’ll navigate the Senate dynamics thereafter,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said.
