Over recess, we like to look at what’s playing out across the country’s airwaves. On the topic of Medicaid — the hot-button issue of the incipient 2026 cycle — Democrats are already hammering Republicans.
Per an AdImpact analysis, just one Republican is directly pushing back on Medicaid attacks on television amid an onslaught of ads warning of the devastating impacts of cuts.
The rest of the ads that mention Medicaid come from groups pressuring lawmakers to protect the program. The campaign comes as Republicans prepare to take the next step in reconciliation, with significant cuts to Medicaid on the table.
Republicans know the issue could prove politically explosive. As we scooped last week, a group of a dozen vulnerable GOP incumbents wrote to House Republican leadership vowing to oppose a bill that “includes any reduction in Medicaid coverage for vulnerable populations.”
For ad-makers, the reconciliation outline provides real fodder for effective TV messaging.
What’s on the air: In Washington’s 4th District, Save My Care is running ads demanding that Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) “stop these cuts to Medicaid.”
The ad warns that if Congress cuts Medicaid, “over 293,000 of us in our community could have our healthcare ripped away… veterans, seniors, kids with disabilities, everyday working people.”
Save My Care is part of a broader Democratic blitz worth up to $10 million, we’re told.
This messaging also comes on the heels of a nationwide ad campaign from Democratic group House Majority Forward that went after at-risk Republican incumbents for supporting the GOP budget resolution.
Yet the ad spending goes beyond just the national super PACs.
In California, unions like AFSCME and IFPTE are running ad campaigns urging House members to save the state’s Medicaid-funded rural hospitals.
Here’s an example of one of the ads targeting vulnerable Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.). Other at-risk GOP members included in the ad buy are California Reps. Kevin Kiley and David Valadao.
Another major flashpoint of the Medicaid ad wars is playing out in New York’s 1st District, the purplish seat represented by Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.), who isn’t on the DCCC target list.
Earlier this year, a nursing home advocacy organization ran an ad informing viewers that “Washington is threatening drastic cuts to Medicaid funding for nursing homes.”
Weeks later, LaLota cut a direct-to-camera franked ad — paid for by taxpayer funds — to blast the health care-related attacks.
“I’ve been fighting to protect Medicaid, getting those without legal immigration status off the rolls, requiring work for able-bodied adults and eliminating waste, fraud and abuse,” LaLota says in the spot.
GOP countermessage: The “waste, fraud and abuse” line is similar to Republican messaging we’ve seen from some center-right groups to give backup to vulnerable GOP members.
In March, the Republican Main Street Partnership launched a campaign that thanked Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) and Rob Bresnahan (R-Pa.) for fighting fraud in Medicare and Medicaid.
Just like LaLota’s response, Republican groups are attempting to reorient the narrative around getting rid of government abuse without directly mentioning spending cuts.
