On Wednesday, we outlined the many reasons to be skeptical about a bipartisan Senate health care deal coming together in the new year. Now, President Donald Trump says Hill Republicans “don’t need” to pass a big legislative package in 2026 at all.
If that holds — and it’s a big “if” given Trump’s penchant for changing his mind — it would be yet another sign that Congress will be unable to address soaring health care costs, a major policy and political problem for Republicans.
Trump’s comments came on the eve of today’s Senate votes on dueling partisan health care plans, neither of which will get 60 votes. While many senators are hoping these failed votes will spur a bipartisan deal next year, the challenges here are immense.
The president’s general disengagement with the Hill on health care talks has effectively doomed chances of a deal before the Dec. 31 expiration of the enhanced Obamacare subsidies.
If Trump remains uninterested in a big legislative effort next year, that could also tank many Republicans’ hopes — however ambitious — for a second reconciliation bill.
Some GOP senators have been privately making the case to Senate Majority Leader John Thune — including during an Oct. 23 meeting — that reconciliation is the best way to address health care, arguing Democrats will never help provide 60 votes. This would allow Republicans to pass a bill without needing Democratic votes. Yet it’s unclear whether Republicans would even be able to muster enough support within their own ranks in both chambers.
Democrats dig in. Senate Democrats have been framing Thursday’s vote on their proposal to extend the enhanced Obamacare subsidies for three years as a “last chance” for congressional action on the issue.
They’re technically correct, as it’s likely the final opportunity for the Senate to address the cliff in some way before the year-end deadline.
“We just need 13 Republicans. That’s it,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) said. “It would be a pretty sad statement about where the Republican Party is today if there aren’t just a dozen that are willing to stand up and do the right thing.”
Republicans say the problem of rising health care costs in general can still be addressed in the new year, potentially tied to the Jan. 30 government-funding deadline. They’ve already said a clean extension is a nonstarter.
But pointing to comments like Murphy’s, Republicans also believe Democrats will see few incentives to help the GOP during an election year.
“I just don’t see much of a mood among the Democrats to solve this problem,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). “I think the problem is their leverage politically.”
There’s no doubt that some Senate Democrats, such as Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Angus King (I-Maine), will still try to get a deal. But it’s difficult to see that group expanding by more than just a handful.
News: Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Ted Budd (R-N.C.) are introducing a new health care bill called the COMPETE Act. The legislation is billed as an attempt to provide Americans with more options by extending the time period of short-term, limited-duration insurance plans.
