On April 22, House Democrats were riding high.
They’d just won a huge gamble in Virginia, spending tens of millions of dollars on a redistricting referendum aimed at netting them up to four new seats. President Donald Trump — who set off the unprecedented national redistricting fight in Texas last year — was tanking in the polls, dragging down Republicans everywhere.
Overall, it looked like Democrats had held Republicans to a draw in the redistricting wars and were on their way to the House majority.
But the last two weeks have suddenly turned rough for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and the Democratic Caucus. They’re facing legal setbacks on redistricting across multiple fronts, developments that have reshaped the battle for the House.
As many as 10 seats could now swing toward Republicans in a worst-case scenario for Democrats, although this all remains very fluid.
What is clear is that the Supreme Court’s decision to gut Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and another late round of GOP redistricting have dramatically altered Democrats’ fortunes. We’re not saying Democrats won’t win the House. But the hill has gotten steeper.
First, Florida Republicans shoved through an aggressive gerrymander that could boot four Democrats from the delegation. Even many Republicans were surprised at GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposal.
Then, Virginia’s Supreme Court signaled that it was considering striking down Democrats’ hard-won referendum victory. No one is sure what will happen there.
Plus, the Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais has put a number of seats in play across the South, including in Louisiana, Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee.
Democrats knew their fortunes could turn quickly, especially if the VRA ruling went against them. But the size, scale and speed of the redistricting reversal is stunning.
“No matter how hard they try, Republicans will not be able to artificially gerrymander themselves into the majority in 2026. Voters will get the final say in November,” said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton.
Virginia. Democrats are beginning to fret that the Virginia Supreme Court will overturn the voter-approved map, which was drawn to net them as many as four blue seats. The court declined to allow certification of the April 21 redistricting referendum, leaving Virginia election officials and candidates in limbo.
Remember, the Virginia Supreme Court allowed the referendum to proceed over GOP objections. But the Virginia justices also said they reserved the right to rule on the Republican procedural challenge after the voting had taken place.
Every day of delay has Virginia and national Democrats growing more skittish. Yet Democrats could still win two of the contested four seats even if they lose in court.
If the new map doesn’t go into effect, Democrats still have a good chance at toppling GOP Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans. But GOP Reps. John McGuire and Ben Cline will likely be safe.
The GOP South. It’s been a week since SCOTUS ruled in Louisiana v. Callais. And Republican-controlled southern states — under pressure from Trump — have moved extremely fast in response.
GOP lawmakers in Tennessee have already circulated a map designed to draw Rep. Steve Cohen out of his Memphis seat with negligible impact to the state’s other Republicans.
Louisiana Republicans are likely to redraw at least one of the Bayou State’s two Democrats out of the House.
Alabama GOP officials are pressuring the Supreme Court to lift an order that forces the state to keep its congressional map until 2030. This would allow the Republican-run legislature to at least draw Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures out of his seat, stretching from Mobile to the Georgia border. In theory, Republicans could also go for Democratic Rep. Terri Sewell, whose district is anchored in Birmingham.
South Carolina is mulling a new map to eliminate iconic Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn’s deep blue seat. Clyburn is the only elected Democrat remaining in the Palmetto State delegation.
Mississippi’s Republican Gov. Tate Reeves told the Daily Caller he’s considering a push to eliminate Democratic Rep. Bennie Thompson’s seat in the western part of the state. Mississippi already had its primary, so this is very likely a 2028 move.
None of these Republican-drawn maps are final yet. The Florida map is subject to multiple lawsuits. Yet even if the map stands, Jeffries and Democratic leaders think they can snatch a few light red seats from the GOP. South Carolina Republicans are far from assured of passing their map.
Nationwide, a number of seats are trending in the Democrats’ direction. If the current political environment continues to worsen for the GOP, Democrats may even pick up or hold onto seats that Republicans redrew.
