We’re beginning to get a better sense of how the next few weeks will look like in the House as Congress tries to wrap up the 118th Congress.
The House GOP leadership intends to put the NDAA on the floor next week. Speaker Mike Johnson would like to consider the annual defense policy bill — a piece of must-pass legislation — under a rule. Compromise text was supposed to be unveiled Thursday evening, though it has yet to be released.
The big sticking point here has been the topline spending number for the package. The Senate has been seeking $25 billion more than the House. Party leaders in both chambers have been pulled in to help resolve this dispute.
There’s also a very decent chance that conservative hardliners on the House Rules Committee will reject the proposed NDAA final package, as it’s very unlikely to include the culture war provisions favored by right-wing lawmakers. This would force Johnson to put the measure on the floor under suspension of the rules, which requires a two-thirds majority for passage. GOP and Democratic lawmakers and aides, though, believe it will pass. The House approved last year’s NDAA by a 310-118 margin, with dozens of conservatives joining with progressives to oppose the legislation.
Johnson also told us he hopes the congressional leaders can wrap up bipartisan negotiations over the government funding bill this weekend and release this legislation next week.
The House is expected to vote first on the CR during the week of Dec. 16 and then leave town. The Senate would then take up government funding that week ahead of the Dec. 20 shutdown date.
As of right now, the House GOP leadership is planning to attach a one-year extension of the farm bill and a major disaster aid package to the CR. How big that will be is up in the air. The White House has sought nearly $100 billion in emergency disaster funding, although House and Senate appropriators have suggested Congress will approve something in the $30 billion to $40 billion range.
But that idea also has run into resistance from the conservative House Freedom Caucus, which took an official position this week against any disaster funding that isn’t offset with other spending cuts.
That means the CR will also need to come to the floor under suspension. Johnson is going to need Democrats to help carry it over the finish line, as usual, which gives them leverage. But don’t expect that to create any major issues for Johnson’s quest for the speaker’s gavel on the floor in January.
Both of these packages are expected to fare much better in the Senate. The Senate approved the NDAA by an 87-13 margin last year. And the CR will get Senate approval if it clears the House.
