Endangered incumbents in both parties posted strong third quarter fundraising as they gear up for the 2026 midterms. But Democrats have so far landed more well-funded challengers.
Neither party needs to flip more than a handful of seats to secure House control. And it’s still early in the election cycle. Many candidates launched their campaigns in the fourth quarter, so we don’t have a sense of their fundraising prowess. And we have no idea just how much redistricting will upend the House map.
Yet those caveats aside, Democrats are doing what they need to do to keep as wide a path to a majority as possible in 2026.
Incumbents. Seventeen of the 25 Democratic incumbents on the NRCC’s 2026 target list raised $500,000 or more in Q3, according to a Punchbowl News analysis of FEC filings.
Four of those Democrats raised more than $1 million: Reps. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.), Derek Tran (D-Calif.), Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) and Jared Golden (D-Maine).
On the GOP side, 20 of the 30 Republican incumbents on the DCCC’s target list raised $500,000 or more in Q3.
Four of those Republicans also crossed the $1 million threshold: Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.).
Challengers. Of course, primaries will drain resources. But Democrats are doing better in getting well-funded challengers in place. Democratic candidates raised $400,000 or more last quarter in 13 of the 30 DCCC-targeted districts. Republican candidates crossed that threshold in five districts on the NRCC’s list.
A few endangered Republicans were outraised by a challenger. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) was bested by Democrat JoAnna Mendoza. Reps. Scott Perry (R-Pa.) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) also raised less than their challengers, who are both running again after losing in 2024.
Democrats in some “reach districts” posted strong numbers: Chaz Molder, a Democrat challenging Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.), raised nearly $800,000 to Ogles’ $65,000.
Some targeted Democrats were outraised by GOP opponents: Reps. Don Davis (D-N.C.), Susie Lee (D-Nev.), Darren Soto (D-Fla.) and Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas). But all of their opponents are self-funded. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) wasn’t outraised but seems likely to have a more serious challenge this time. Washington state Sen. John Braun raised $509,000.
Yet a number of other swing-seat Democrats didn’t have any serious challenger at the close of the third quarter, including Reps. Laura Gillen (D-N.Y.), Josh Riley (D-N.Y.), Tran and Suozzi.
Redistricting twist. For Davis, North Carolina Republicans’ redistricting push makes his future uncertain. Davis said in a statement that he’s “considering every option” in light of the new redraw, which makes his district significantly more red. Trump would have won it by 11 points. The new North Carolina map also put Davis’ home into Rep. Greg Murphy’s (R-N.C.) district.
A Murphy spokesperson said he’s reviewing the map and “looks forward to serving the people of Eastern North Carolina.” Murphy’s district would become a Trump +13 seat under the proposed map. It would lose the Outer Banks and much of the coast to Davis’ current district, which is a big change for Murphy.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries responded by vowing to “aggressively defend” Davis and “unleash everything we have” to defeat Murphy next year.
