If House Republican leadership can turn things around and force the Senate-passed budget resolution through the chamber, they’ll quickly face a politically toxic showdown over cutting Medicaid.
There would be intense pressure from House Freedom Caucus members and other deficit hawks to draft a reconciliation package that meets the House’s spending cut instructions. That would mean $880 billion in cuts from the House Energy and Commerce Committee’s jurisdiction – the vast majority of which would need to come from Medicaid.
A group of House Republicans — including moderates and vulnerable members — have been warning leadership about how far they’re willing to go on Medicaid. They’re already getting hammered by Democrats over potential cuts to the popular program. Some of the GOP lawmakers say they’re willing to kill the final reconciliation package if it goes too far, an unusual show of defiance from the centrist wing.
Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) told us he’d vote against a final bill if it includes massive spending cuts that harm Medicaid.
“I reflect about 20 people. I think there’s a bunch of us that don’t want to see cuts to the quality of health care and reimbursements to hospitals. We think $880 [billion] would force that.”
“There’s a clear understanding between many of us and the speaker,” Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) added. “We will not vote for something that takes away eligibility from our constituents, period.”
Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said he has concerns but he’s willing to back the budget resolution and fight it out later.
“We’ll vote on the merits of all these proposals come reconciliation,” LaLota said. “And if they don’t meet the day, I’ll vote no.”
The calculus: The Senate-passed budget resolution doesn’t lock the chamber into any Medicaid cuts in the reconciliation process, but it maintains the House’s $880 billion goal. That’s good news for these centrist members, but they still face problems.
1) They’ll be up against GOP colleagues eager for deep cuts and who are far more used to tanking leadership’s plans to get what they want.
2) Opposing the final reconciliation bill – and bucking President Donald Trump – will be nearly impossible for any Republican.
3) These members will be under pressure to vote for $880 billion in E&C reductions at least initially, which could lead to taking tough votes on Medicaid cuts that are dead in the Senate anyway.
E&C has emphasized it can find its cuts from other policy areas under its jurisdiction. But there’s not a lot of bang for their buck beyond Medicaid, per CBO.
News on Dems: House Democrats have a new angle on the GOP spending-cut plans. House Budget Committee Ranking Member Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.) is leading a bill to block cuts to Medicaid or SNAP using reconciliation. Democratic Reps. Frank Pallone (N.J.), Angie Craig (Minn.), Greg Casar (Texas), Brad Schneider (Ill.), and Lou Correa (Calif.) are also sponsoring the measure. This group represents Democrats from across the committees and caucus.
Boyle said “if Republicans truly stand with everyday Americans, they’ll support this bill.”
