We’re now 228 days until Election Day. Everyone in the House Republican Conference is publicly confident that the GOP will keep the majority despite the many problems they face, including the Iran war. But privately, the candid assessment is much more grim — Republicans are likely to lose their razor-thin majority.
And throughout the GOP conference, the leadership parlor games are well underway.
The big question: Can — and will — Speaker Mike Johnson remain as the GOP leader if Republicans lose the House? If not, who succeeds him as minority leader?
No one wants to talk about this on the record. But we thought it would be useful to reflect the private conversations ricocheting around the GOP leadership and top level of the rank and file.
Johnson stays. The last two times Republicans lost the majority — 2006 and 2018 — their speaker didn’t return as minority leader. Dennis Hastert declined to run for the post in 2006. Paul Ryan was already on his way out of the door in 2018. In fact, you have to go back to Joseph Martin in the 1940s and 1950s to find a Republican speaker who lost the majority yet remained as minority leader. So history is against the 54-year-old Johnson.
Could Johnson do it? Sure. Getting half of the conference in a secret vote is much easier than getting 218 votes on the House floor for speaker. Johnson has pockets of strong support in the House GOP. And if House Republicans keep the election close, Johnson could make the argument that they will need a steady hand to guide them in the minority.
It also doesn’t hurt that Johnson is raising tons of cash for his members and traveling everywhere. He just transferred $18 million to the NRCC, candidates and parties earlier this week.
As of now, Johnson has President Donald Trump’s support. Trump truly has an affinity for Johnson. And the president’s backing is really all that matters in a House Republican Conference with no unifying ideological core besides loyalty to the president.
Scott Wong of NBC News asked Johnson recently what he’d do if Republicans lose the majority.
“I don’t think about alternatives,” Johnson responded. “I am laser focused on the goal like I have been everything. They have written my epitaph 20 times. They said that I wouldn’t last three weeks, then that I wouldn’t last three months as speaker. I think we’re almost two-and-a-half years in now.”
Jordan rises. Being minority leader means fighting the majority every day about everything. The top Republican in any minority will have to be an attack dog against Democrats, who are vowing to investigate every facet of Trump’s presidency.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) has useful experience here. He’s chair of the House Judiciary Committee, and he made his name sticking up for Trump and lambasting Democrats. Trump sees Jordan as a championship wrestler who’s always ready to brawl. And don’t forget that Jordan came close to becoming speaker in 2023.
The knock on Jordan has always been that he can’t appeal to the middle of the House Republican Conference. But he’s done a lot to smooth over those relationships, fundraising for GOP candidates and incumbents around the country. Plus, moderates and swing-seat Republicans are the members most likely to lose in November.
Jordan would be a prime choice if Republicans want to dump the current leadership slate and start over. Will he run against Johnson? That’s tough. It would depend on Trump. But Jordan is one of the few non-leadership Republicans you should watch. Republican Study Committee Chair Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) is another. Pfluger raises a ton of money and has a tremendous powerbase in the Texas delegation.
On Scalise. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, the longest serving member of the GOP leadership, doesn’t appear to be interested in leaving Congress anytime soon. He seems to relish the grind of the job even after 12 years as an elected leader.
The question for Scalise will be how much blame he gets if Republicans lose the House. The majority leader sets the agenda, and that’s been heavily criticized by rank-and-file members.
Scalise, though, has a tremendous base of support in the conference — perhaps stronger than ever — anchored in the Southeast but with major inroads in the Midwest.
Plus, don’t underestimate the institutional advantage Scalise would have in any race. He’s run tough races and has a team that understands the conference perhaps better than anyone.
Yet after a political defeat, House Republicans may just want to start over.
Emmer’s second chance? You may remember that the principal reason House Minority Whip Tom Emmer isn’t Speaker Tom Emmer is because Trump crushed him, labeling the Minnesota Republican a “globalist RINO” who is “totally out of touch with Republican voters.”
No longer.
Emmer has grown far closer to Trump in the last two years as he’s worked as the party’s chief vote counter.
The knock on Emmer from his detractors is that Johnson and Scalise do most of the whipping, while he simply canvasses the conference for its views. They’ll criticize Emmer for failed floor votes.
But Emmer allies point out that their job is to execute an agenda that the speaker sets. And that’s not always easy, given the historically thin majority. Emmer frequently reminds reporters: the speaker sets the agenda and makes the play calls.
Emmer can raise money. He’s also shown his fighting spirit of late in the wake of allegations of fraud in the Democratic-dominated Minnesota state government.
There are two questions for Emmer and Scalise. Would they run against Johnson? If Johnson leaves, would Emmer and Scalise run against each other? That would be a momentous clash inside the House GOP conference.
