Congress has just 45 days to avert a partial government shutdown against the backdrop of a looming health care crisis and congressional paralysis when it comes to passing another FY2026 funding package.
It’s the perfect storm for another high-profile funding fight that comes on the heels of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history.
Spending standstill. Senate Republicans are mired in a bitter feud between appropriators and fiscal hawks over the inclusion of earmarks in the funding bills that passed out of committee.
The latter group is standing in the way of a funding package that Senate Majority Leader John Thune and his leadership team are desperately trying to advance before Christmas.
“The options aren’t good — do you want a shutdown? CR? Omni[bus]? None of those are options that most of our folks want to have to deal with,” Thune told us.
GOP leaders are also worried that their party’s dysfunction will only embolden Democrats to put up another fight over government funding — whether the issue is health care or something else entirely.
Health care. A key factor is how the Jan. 1 expiration of Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits factors into Senate Democrats’ posture over the Jan. 30 government funding deadline.
Senate Democrats are split into two camps on the issue: Progressives who want to make Republicans own the resulting health care premium hikes, and those Democrats who want to cut a deal with the GOP. Many in the latter group were among the Senate Democrats who voted with Republicans to end the recent shutdown.
Progressives especially have no interest in helping “bail out” Republicans.
“There’s not gonna be a deal before then. It’s not even a theoretical,” Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) said. “That’s exactly the point. That’s what [Republicans] wanted, which is skyrocketing costs for the American people.”
“Maybe Republicans will miraculously develop some perceptiveness about public opinion. Be realistic,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) quipped.
Kim’s and Blumenthal’s comments echo Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who seemed to cast doubt on the prospects of a bipartisan deal after last week’s failed votes on dueling partisan health care proposals. Yet many of Schumer’s Democrats are still participating in cross-aisle discussions on some kind of Obamacare subsidies extension.
Deal or no deal? Senators involved in Monday’s meeting want to ensure that a potential health care deal doesn’t become ensnared in the funding fight in a way that dooms both.
“The goal is to work independently of [the funding deadline],” said Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), an appropriator. “I think you’ve got a lot of people that have come together in good faith that want to ensure a pathway forward.”
Keeping the two issues separate is also important for the Democrats who want a bipartisan deal.
“It’s perilously close to something called legislating, which used to be common in the Senate and hasn’t been in a long time,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin said after the meeting.
But most Democrats are comfortable continuing to hammer Republicans over what could be a major vulnerability for the GOP in the midterms, lowering the chances of an agreement.
“People will have had their [health care] bills increase, it’ll certainly be on people’s minds,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) said.
