Speaker Mike Johnson is about to enter the gauntlet.
The speaker is staring down an excruciatingly difficult stretch over the next 11 months that will test the Republican Conference’s patience, his own political savvy and President Donald Trump’s power within the GOP.
Johnson has made no secret about his exhaustion with the speakership, a job he was thrown into with almost no experience more than two years ago following the sudden ousting of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
But the scary news for the 53-year-old Johnson is that the worst may be yet to come.
1) Voters in Tennessee’s 7th District go to the polls today to choose former Rep. Mark Green’s (R-Tenn.) successor. This is a district that Trump won by 22 points.
Special elections are, for lack of a better term, “special.” Turnout is unpredictable, even goofy. And truth be told, Republicans and Democrats both say that Matt Van Epps, the GOP candidate, is likely to win. Van Epps is running against Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn. It’s quite the statement that she’s even competitive in this ruby-red district.
But if Van Epps wins by roughly five points — as many expect — there will be serious questions about House Republicans’ political standing less than one year before the midterms.
2) Enhanced Obamacare premium tax credits expire at the end of the month. Most House Republicans don’t want to extend these subsidies. But Johnson’s leadership team understands that there are vulnerable House GOP lawmakers who badly want a vote on something to combat the idea that Republicans are indifferent to massive spikes in health care premiums.
Here’s the rub, however — Hill Republicans have no health care plan. Even if they come up with a proposal — boosting health savings accounts and broadening insurance pools, for instance — it won’t be nearly as broad as Obamacare or impact premiums in the short term. There’s no guarantee the House can pass it, or the Senate will take it up.
Time is running short. The House is slated to consider the must-pass annual defense authorization bill next week. And then members have just one week left in session before the December recess.
“We’re building consensus and that’s what’s going to dictate when we bring it to the floor,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us Monday evening.
3) There are just 59 days until government funding expires once again. We’re very careful about predicting government shutdowns. But it will take a lot for the House and Senate to pass nine spending bills between now and Jan. 30.
The House has just 24 days in session between now and then. House GOP leaders don’t plan to take up a single spending bill before the new year.
4) GOP leaders seem to be a bit blind to the fact that there are a lot of Republicans who are plainly unhappy at the moment. We’ve heard from a bunch of rank-and-file members that they’re considering retirement or resigning.
Some of this is unfair — Johnson has a razor-thin majority, an unpredictable president to whom he’s tied and a restive membership that always wants more.
Yet despite the niceties in GOP conference meetings, there are a lot of bruised egos and hard feelings in the party right now.
Just on Monday, Texas GOP Rep. Chip Roy (who is running for another office) railed against the SCORE Act — landmark collegiate athletics legislation — in the House Rules Committee, which Johnson controls.
And Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), a member of Johnson’s own leadership team, threatened to work to defeat the NDAA because she thinks the speaker is getting “rolled” by Democrats.
5) Republicans and Democrats are joining forces to raise serious questions about the Trump administration’s conduct in targeting alleged drug smugglers or what his plans are for dealing with Venezuela. This could turn into a major flashpoint between Congress and Trump depending on how the crisis unfolds.
6) What’s Republicans’ 2026 agenda? If you ask the GOP leadership, they seem to have no idea. Affordability is the top political issue. But how House Republicans plan to address that remains unclear.
What if the Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariffs? How will Congress respond? You can pretty much guarantee that the House Republican Conference will have a tough time voting to reinstate the president’s tariff regime if they are forced to do so.
7) Even if Van Epps wins this evening, by April, the House GOP majority will be balancing on the head of a pin. Once Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) retires next year and Democrats pick up deep blue seats in Texas and New Jersey, Republicans will have 219 seats to 215 Democratic seats. That’s a one-vote margin (bills fail on a tie.)
If anyone resigns or is otherwise forced from office, it’s not far-fetched to see House Republicans losing their majority this Congress. We’re not saying it will happen, but it could.
8) Republicans picking up seats in redistricting is no longer a sure thing. The Indiana Senate could easily reject a new map that gives Republicans all nine House seats in the Hoosier State. The Supreme Court is set to rule on Texas’ redraw in the coming days. House Republicans may net a few seats when it’s all said and done, but it will no longer be the massive boon that Trump and GOP leaders once hoped.
Members are retiring at a quick clip and senior House Republican officials say there are more to come. Between now and next fall, it’s up to House GOP leaders to convince donors that they’re still a good investment.
