Speaker Mike Johnson has an incredibly difficult week ahead.
The speaker has spent months urging Republican lawmakers to set aside their misgivings with the reconciliation bill so they could take one more step in pushing the package toward law.
But that option has run out.
Johnson now needs to convince a House Republican Conference that feels like it has been strung along for months to deliver a signature legislative victory for President Donald Trump on a package that many of them think is subpar.
Here’s the box that Johnson finds himself in.
House conservatives were promised $2 trillion in spending cuts if Republicans were to cut taxes by $4.5 trillion. The Senate fell short of the spending cut goal.
And moderates are freaked about the cuts to Medicaid, which have gotten harsher in the Senate bill. The Senate’s Medicaid cuts total close to $1 trillion – far more than what the middle of the House GOP was comfortable with.
The White House believes it can assuage these concerns and get the bill passed by Friday. Trump himself is going to have to play a very big role here.
HFC’s response: The House Freedom Caucus previewed on Sunday what we believe will be their chief argument against the measure, saying that the Senate bill “adds $1.3 trillion to the deficit,” which is 1,705% more than the House bill.
The simple fact here is that the HFC is almost certain to demand a bunch of changes to the Senate’s reconciliation package – changes that Johnson will desperately want to avoid.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), one of the most vocal members of the HFC, is already railing against the bill’s treatment of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. Roy has been urging House and Senate Republican leadership to end all tax credits and said Sunday that the Senate’s bill leaves “in place about half of the subsidies.”
The HFC has every incentive to hold out here. Many of them reluctantly voted to advance the reconciliation bill from the House last month with the misplaced hope that the Senate would accede to the hard right’s demands.
Johnson has told his leadership team that he intends to work on another reconciliation bill in the fall — something he’s sure to tell conservatives also. But as the 2026 midterm elections draw closer, it will become even more difficult to pass legislation cutting federal spending.
The no’s: So far, the GOP has a slew of declared no votes. We are keeping track of all the movements in our Big Mad Index.
It seems all-but-guaranteed that Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) will vote against the bill.
Reps. David Valadao (R-Calif.) and Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) have said they’ll vote no as well. Both could have tricky reelections next year and both don’t like the Senate’s Medicaid changes.
Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) said he will vote no because he doesn’t like the SALT deal that his fellow New York Republicans cut with the Trump administration. Few believe LaLota will vote no at the end of the day, but he’s someone to keep a close eye on.
Conservative Reps. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) and Andy Harris (R-Md.) have indicated they aren’t happy with the package. Harris — the HFC chair — caught a lot of flak when he voted present on the bill in the House. So Harris may be incentivized to vote no on final passage.
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has also indicated her displeasure. But we assume Trump can and will flip her.
The House Rules Committee will meet on Tuesday, and the chamber will hold its first floor vote Wednesday. This gives Johnson and his team two full days to try to get the reconciliation plan through.
