It’s very clear — House Republicans have been in a rut.
Speaker Mike Johnson twice failed in humiliating fashion to pass an extension of FISA, the controversial intelligence surveillance law. Next week, Johnson and the House GOP will see if the third time is a charm.
Democrats muscled through a high-stakes redistricting referendum in Virginia on Tuesday, setting off intense squabbling among House Republicans about why they were so badly outspent in the Old Dominion.
President Donald Trump’s war with Iran continues to roil global financial and energy markets with no end in sight. Trump’s polling numbers have collapsed, including on the economy, which is a huge problem for vulnerable GOP lawmakers. Another embattled Cabinet secretary bailed out this week, and a wave of sexual misconduct scandals have rocked Capitol Hill.
But House Republicans plan to try to get some momentum back.
First. Johnson and the House Republican leadership team plan to unveil a framework next week of what could be included in a third reconciliation bill. This is aimed at convincing rank-and-file Republicans that they’re actually interested in pursuing a third package.
The House is ready to act next week on the second GOP reconciliation bill, which will be narrowly tailored to fund Border Patrol and ICE. Republicans hope to end a now 69-day shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security.
However, several key House Republicans — Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (Ohio), Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (Texas) and Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (Mo.) — are telling their rank-and-file colleagues that GOP leaders should add onto the ICE-Border Patrol bill. Johnson and his top lieutenants are trying to stop that sentiment from spreading.
The ultimate goal here is for House Republicans to pass the Senate’s budget resolution next week to reopen DHS. The situation is dire. The mega-department — currently operating under a Trump executive order — will have no more money to pay its employees in less than one week.
Still, some top Republican aides say that it could take a few weeks to pass a budget resolution. Johnson would then face the tough decision of whether to put the DHS funding bill on the floor before passing the reconciliation blueprint. This is something Johnson has said he doesn’t want to do.
Second. Johnson’s team is hell-bent on passing a FISA Section 702 reauthorization bill next week ahead of the Thursday expiration deadline.
After days of talks between hardline conservatives and moderates, House GOP leaders have released a three-year FISA bill with modest reforms. The legislation stops far short of the new warrant requirements that many in Congress are demanding. But it includes new penalties for FISA abuses and additional checks on information sought about U.S. persons.
Johnson has decided to put the bill on the floor under a rule, which requires a simple majority for passage. That means Johnson will have to clear that procedural hurdle with only Republican votes, which won’t be easy.
You have lawmakers like GOP Rep. Keith Self of Texas, who has been pushing ceaselessly for the inclusion of a ban on a central bank digital currency in the FISA bill, something the White House and Republican leaders want to avoid. Then there’s Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who says she won’t vote for any rule unless the underlying bill includes the SAVE America Act. Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) has been vehemently opposed to FISA.
If Johnson can’t get Republicans like these on board, he’s sunk — unless he somehow gets Democrats to vote with him on a rule.
But several House GOP sources tell us that Johnson won’t allow FISA to go dark. Johnson will put the bill on suspension of the rules if needed, meaning it would need 290 votes. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been opposed to previous GOP versions of the FISA reauthorization bill. So the stakes are high.
Third. There’s also the farm bill reauthorization, which House GOP leaders have set for floor action before the upcoming recess.
This is going to be a close vote. With U.S. farmers under heavy economic pressure, seven Democrats voted for the GOP-drafted bill in the Agriculture Committee last month. More could do so on the floor.
Yet there are a number of Republicans who could vote no, so this is a fluid whip count.
Fourth. Then there’s the political side. The GOP-dominated Florida legislature is expected to meet next week on proposed new congressional maps for the Sunshine State. These could come out as soon as Monday. And the Virginia Supreme Court will hear arguments Monday on whether to strike down the new 10 Democrat-1 Republican map that the commonwealth voters approved this week.
