When the 33 members of the House Republican Steering Committee entered HC-5 in the basement of the Capitol Monday, many of the GOP lawmakers and their top aides were certain that Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Mo.) would be picked as the next chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Wagner, a former U.S. ambassador to Luxembourg, had the support of Speaker Mike Johnson and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, her longtime close ally. That was six of the 17 votes Wagner needed to grab the gavel. The full conference needs to ratify the pick, but that’s mostly a formality.
The other House Republicans vying for the position — Reps. Darrell Issa (Calif.), Joe Wilson (S.C.) and Brian Mast (Fla.) — were viewed as having little chance of beating Wagner, a sixth-term Missouri Republican.
But then something interesting happened.
Scalise spoke on behalf of Wagner, delivering a stirring endorsement of her candidacy. But Johnson did not. Members of the powerful steering panel, who typically defer to the speaker and look for his cues on committee posts, came to believe that Johnson was backing Mast.
Recollections differ among the roughly dozen members of the panel we spoke to. But after Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) delivered an endorsement of Mast, lawmakers in the room thought that Johnson gave his approval of Mast’s candidacy. Some Republicans said Johnson made an offhand remark about the strength of Mast’s presentation. Others recalled that Johnson said it would be “hard to say no” to Mast’s pitch.
One steering committee member said that Johnson said “We should listen to the general when he speaks.” Bergman is a former lieutenant general in the Marine Corps.
Johnson told us that he’d made clear to lawmakers that he wasn’t trying to put his thumb on the scale for anyone.
“I said ‘Don’t look for cues,’” Johnson said. “I am Switzerland here. I couldn’t have said it more clearly than that.”
But members of the steering committee didn’t get the message. And several of them told us they thought Johnson was backing Mast.
Mast won the election on the first ballot, a massive surprise given there were four candidates in the race.
The postmortem on what happened has captivated members of the secretive steering committee over the last few days. Several Republicans tell us that they have had a harder time “reading the room” — the steering committee — than ever before. Former speakers like John Boehner, Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy rarely let their preferences for committee chairs remain a secret. With four votes — no one other than Scalise has more than one — Johnson’s support is a big deal.
This episode teaches us a bit about Johnson’s leadership style. And it dovetails nicely with the mess unfolding over passing President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda.
Right now, for instance, Johnson is stuck between two competing camps over the best strategy for advancing the heart of Trump’s legislative program.
On one side is Stephen Miller, Trump’s top adviser who will serve as the top domestic policy hand in the White House, and incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune. Miller and Thune want Johnson to agree to pass two budget reconciliation bills — one with a slew of domestic priorities early next year and a second package later with an extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
On the other side is House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.). Smith has told anyone who’ll listen that Congress could miss an opportunity to extend the Trump tax cuts if the White House insists on splitting the president-elect’s agenda into two bills.
Smith has made the case that, when it comes to tax policy, he understands the House better than anyone. Smith’s belief is that unless Congress quickly crafts one massive reconciliation package with all the critical policies that Trump wants to sign into law, tax cuts could fall by the wayside.
For what it’s worth, Smith’s position has a bevy of backers in the Johnson-Scalise-House Majority Whip Tom Emmer orbit, many of whom shudder at the prospect of having to balance the various equities of tax policy without the sweeteners of border security funding, energy provisions and other goodies.
But Johnson hasn’t shown his hand yet. He’s been straddling both positions. Inside GOP meetings, some have come to believe that Johnson is going to bat for Smith with the Trump team.
Then on Fox News on Tuesday night, Johnson told Bret Baier that “there probably will be at least two reconciliation packages.” At least!
As we noted in Wednesday’s Midday edition, opposition to two reconciliation bills is hardening among the rank-and-file House Republicans and committee chairs. The House GOP leadership team is eager for Johnson to take a position and rally Republicans around it. Because right now, Smith is whipping up opposition to Thune and Trump’s plan. And it’s working.
