Speaker Mike Johnson intends to begin presenting the outlines of his budget reconciliation package today in the House Republican Conference meeting, even as he’s being squeezed by multiple factions on Capitol Hill.
Johnson believes he’s “very close” to a final budget resolution, which he crafted alongside House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). Arrington is under a tremendous amount of pressure from the House Republican rank and file, as the budget proposal needed to unlock President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda has been repeatedly delayed.
The House GOP leadership has considered several different budget proposals, ranging from $1 trillion in cuts to up to $2.5 trillion in cuts. They’re desperately in search of a sweet spot that could sate their conservatives and draw support from the conference’s moderates. We reported Monday that Republicans would have to cut Medicaid if they cut upwards of $2 trillion from the budget, which could spook moderates and would be a tough sell with the White House.
But Johnson also has to contend with the Senate. Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is marking up his own budget resolution proposal on Wednesday and Thursday. Graham’s spending blueprint — blessed by Senate GOP leaders — only includes military, border and energy policy. That pushes the extension of the 2017 Trump tax cuts off to another time, which House GOP leaders don’t want to do.
Johnson said Monday evening that the “probability of success on all of the agenda items decreases dramatically” if Republicans follow Graham’s strategy.
One additional wrinkle. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise told us Monday evening that GOP leadership is again considering putting the debt limit in the reconciliation bill. The House Freedom Caucus, which is advocating two bills, is pushing for the debt limit’s inclusion as well. But most aides in the House GOP leadership do not believe it’s a feasible option.
It seems incredibly unlikely that the Budget Committee will be ready to mark up the spending blueprint this week. The committee needs to give a 48-hour warning before marking up a bill. And House GOP leaders will want to bring the budget to the floor the same week the committee marks it up.
