Nearly all K Street leaders believe Democrats are on track to take back the House in the 2026 midterms, according to our latest Canvass survey.
The broad agreement is already influencing how Congress approaches spending, policy and relationships ahead of a potential shift in power.
Most respondents (91%) said Democrats will win control of the House in November, compared to just 9% who believe the GOP will hold onto its razor-thin majority.
There’s also skepticism about whether Republicans can even maintain their grip on the House before this session ends. Just over half of K Street leaders said it’s likely Republicans will lose their majority before the new Congress is sworn in.
Beyond the House, K Street is already mapping out key Senate primaries.
Maine. Respondents narrowly favored Graham Platner to win the Maine Senate Democratic primary, with 53% backing him compared to 45% for Gov. Janet Mills. A recent Emerson poll in the Pine Tree State shows Platner ahead of Mills by 27 points.
Texas. GOP Sen. John Cornyn is seen on K Street as the frontrunner in the Texas Senate Republican primary, with 52% predicting he’ll win compared to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 46%. President Donald Trump said he would make an endorsement in the runoff between the two, but there’s been no announcement yet. Texas GOP Rep. Brandon Gill, a Trump ally, endorsed Paxton on Thursday.
Cornyn got 42% of the vote in March, edging out Paxton. But the race goes to a runoff in May, without Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) on the ballot.
The Canvass K Street was conducted March 2-20 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
Plus. Here’s the one-pager summing up the results of this month’s Canvass survey. Also check out the full poll and the slide deck.
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