Senior Capitol Hill aides think Democrats are the overwhelming favorite to win the House in next year’s midterm elections.
Leaders on both the Hill and K Street have been trending in this direction for months, with Canvass respondents as far back as June saying Democrats are likely to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans.
More than three-quarters of senior Capitol Hill staffers who participated in our November Canvass poll and 69% of K Street respondents of our October survey predicted midterm victories for House Democrats.
Capitol Hill respondents said redistricting, lawmaker retirements and a favorable political environment are the top reasons Democrats will enter the new year with better chances than Republicans.
Democrats’ strong showing in New Jersey and Virginia in the November off-cycle elections certainly helped boost that thinking. Former Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) won their respective gubernatorial elections, boosting Democrats’ morale.
The redistricting impact. Midterm elections are historically difficult for the party that controls the White House.
President Donald Trump has urged red states to redraw their congressional maps mid-decade to create more GOP-friendly seats to insulate the party. Democrats, however, have organized a successful countercampaign in blue states, leaving the House outlook fairly unchanged.
The number of swing seats has decreased as both parties tried to shore up their vulnerable incumbents in the last regularly scheduled redistricting. But Democrats need to flip just four seats right now to reclaim the majority. That’s well within reach.
Most Canvass respondents predict the Senate will remain in GOP control next year, with divided control of Congress. The Senate map is unfavorable for Democrats; they would have to flip Maine, North Carolina and at least two other seats to take control without losing in Michigan or Georgia.
The last two years of Trump’s first term were also marked by divided government.
