Most K Street leaders (82%) say there will likely be a government shutdown between now and January 2024, according to our recent survey, The Canvass.
As a reminder, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was ousted from his role as speaker over his decision in September to negotiate a continuing resolution with Democrats to keep the federal government open. That CR expires in just 18 days — on Nov. 17.
Newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson has already said he wants a stopgap funding bill until January or April of next year. Many House conservatives seem to be willing to give him time to settle in, and so are open to a CR for now. But there’s already been some pushback in the Senate, where appropriators don’t want to go into next year still operating under a short-term continuing resolution.
Breaking down this month’s survey by party affiliation, there isn’t much daylight between Democratic or GOP lobbyists — 85% of Democrats and 79% of Republicans say a shutdown in 2023 is likely. The survey was conducted Oct. 2 to Oct. 20 in partnership with LSG.
This survey was fielded shortly after Congress narrowly avoided a government shutdown at the end of September and continued for much of the duration of the chaotic speaker race.
Senior staffers on Capitol Hill were generally aligned with K Street on the likelihood of a shutdown when we asked them the same question in September — 92% predicted there would be one this year.
Interested in being a part of our survey? The Canvass provides anonymous insights each month from top Capitol Hill staffers and K Street leaders on key issues facing Washington. Sign up here if you work on K Street. And click here to sign up if you’re a senior congressional staffer.
— Robert O’Shaughnessy
