Nearly three-quarters of senior GOP and Democratic Hill staffers believe Senate Minority Whip John Thune is the most likely candidate to succeed Mitch McConnell as the chamber’s GOP leader, according to our most recent survey.
Republican senators are expected to pick their next leader in a secret vote in late November.
Should Thune win the job, he’d replace McConnell, who has held the post since 2007 and is the longest-serving Senate party leader in U.S. history. Thune briefly filled in for McConnell when the Kentucky Republican was absent from the Senate due to health challenges last summer.
But Thune has had a rocky relationship with former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP nominee for president. Thune condemned Trump for the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol and initially endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) for president. Thune, however, endorsed Trump in February after it became clear the former president would be the GOP nominee.
Respondents placed Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) in second and third places respectively. Both Cornyn and Scott believe in term limits for the Senate GOP leader, which McConnell has opposed.
Cornyn possesses similar fundraising capabilities as McConnell and served as GOP whip during Trump’s presidency. Scott has been critical of McConnell’s leadership and ran against him for the Senate GOP leader position in 2022, although he was soundly defeated.
The Canvass Capitol Hill was conducted June 3-21 in partnership with independent public affairs firm, LSG.
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