Get ready for a blockbuster primary between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in 2026.
During a wide-ranging interview in Punchbowl News’ D.C. office on Monday, Paxton gave the clearest signs yet that he’s planning to challenge Cornyn in what could be one of the most expensive Senate primaries in history.
Cornyn, a decades-long fixture in conservative politics, who nearly became Senate GOP leader, would face a formidable opponent in Paxton, a 62-year-old MAGA loyalist who’s popular with the Texas Republican base.
“I think I can win if I have $20 million,” Paxton said, referring to his fundraising target for a possible primary challenge. “I’ve run these primaries in Texas before. I honestly don’t see how [Cornyn] overcomes his numbers.”
An official announcement won’t come until Paxton can get enough fundraising commitments. Paxton said his timeline is in “the next couple of months.”
But Paxton sounded a lot like a candidate during our interview. Paxton was easily able to rattle off what he sees as the 73-year-old Cornyn’s vulnerabilities — all to make the argument that the veteran senator is out of step with the GOP base in Texas.
“I think it’s just time,” Paxton said of a Cornyn challenge. “He’s had his chance. He hasn’t performed well, and the voters know it. You can go a long time without people paying attention. And they’re paying attention now.”
Paxton added: “If the numbers were the other way, I wouldn’t be sitting here.”
The AG’s case against Cornyn: Paxton zeroed in on Cornyn’s role in crafting legislation to tighten gun laws following the 2022 Uvalde school shooting, which left 19 students and two teachers dead. Paxton said Cornyn “sunk his ship” with this effort.
Another liability, according to Paxton, is Cornyn’s previous support for tens of billions of dollars in U.S. aid for Ukraine.
“I’m going to start calling him ‘Senator Ukraine,’ because he’s funding Ukraine more than he’s funding our border, and that’s a problem in Texas,” Paxton said.
Paxton also has experience running — and winning — in statewide elections. He won two GOP primary runoffs for attorney general with more than 60% of the vote.
Yet Paxton would face a number of headwinds challenging Cornyn.
First, Cornyn has always been an impressive fundraiser. He’s raised more than $400 million throughout his two-decade-plus Senate career.
Plus, Cornyn has the support of the NRSC and Senate Republicans broadly. NRSC Chair Tim Scott made this point recently to discourage Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) from running.
There’s also Paxton’s litany of legal troubles. In May 2023, the Texas House of Representatives voted to impeach the attorney general on corruption and bribery charges. The Texas Senate acquitted Paxton of all charges months later.
Paxton was also indicted on state securities fraud charges in 2015, but the charges were dropped nearly a decade later. Paxton agreed to perform 100 hours of community service and pay more than $270,000 in restitution.
Cornyn’s list of conservative legislative accomplishments is long. As Senate GOP whip, he was instrumental in passing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and shepherding President Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominees through the chamber.
Cornyn has been hugging Trump tightly, noting that he’s voted for all of the president’s nominees in Trump’s first and second terms and has voted with Trump 92% of the time. Cornyn has also applauded Trump’s recent moves regarding the war in Ukraine.
Paxton sees this as a disingenuous effort by Cornyn to shore up his right flank as the primary approaches:
“After 23 years he’s finally got a real opponent — potential opponent — he’s gonna do that, right? I mean, no one’s gonna be surprised by that. Voters are not stupid. Like suddenly he veers to the right? We’re less than a year from the primary now. And as soon as it’s over… he goes back to being John Cornyn.”
Cornyn also lacks a formal leadership role since losing the race for majority leader back in November. And while he has impressive committee assignments, including a spot on the Finance Committee, Cornyn isn’t a full committee chair, despite his seniority.
Cornyn was in Houston for an official event and a fundraiser on Monday. He wasn’t available for an interview.
The Trump factor: The wild card in this race is Trump. Paxton told us there’s a “reasonable chance” he’d get the coveted Trump endorsement. Paxton said he plans on speaking with the president about it. Senate Republicans are sure to lobby Trump aggressively against backing a primary challenger to Cornyn.
But Paxton, referencing recent favorability surveys, claimed Cornyn is so unpopular that Trump’s endorsement might not even be needed in order for him to defeat the incumbent in a primary.
“The numbers that we have are good without the endorsement,” Paxton said. “But clearly an endorsement would… put the nail in the coffin.”
“I don’t want to run against Trump’s pick, but, I mean, I think [Cornyn’s] numbers are so bad, I don’t think there’s any reviving,” Paxton added.
General election: Texas has swung further to the right in recent cycles, driven by GOP gains among Latino voters. Democrats burned cash late in the cycle last year to boost former Rep. Colin Allred’s (D-Texas) unsuccessful challenge against Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).
While Allred lost by nine points, Democrats could be intrigued at the prospect of facing Paxton in a midterm year that should be favorable to the party out of power. Yet Paxton, who won statewide in 2018 during a tough year for Republicans, is projecting confidence.
“People always say I can’t win the general. I always do,” Paxton said.
We’ll have more in the Midday edition, including Paxton’s thoughts on Senate Majority Leader John Thune.
