Senate committees are slated to undergo a significant reshuffling next year regardless of which party wins the majority.
A mix of retirements paired with potential losses by vulnerable incumbents could elevate a new crop of senators to powerful posts in the chamber.
We recently examined the committee landscape for House Democrats and Republicans, so we wanted to do the same for the Senate committees that’ll look different next year.
Foreign Relations: With Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) retiring and Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) resigning this month after being convicted on corruption charges, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is likely to be the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee next year.
Shaheen, who also serves on the Armed Services Committee, has proven to be an influential voice on foreign policy, particularly when it comes to NATO. And her SFRC promotion would be historic. Shaheen would be the first woman to serve as chair or ranking member of the 200-plus-year-old panel, which President Joe Biden once chaired.
Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), currently the ranking member, would once again become the panel’s chair if Republicans win the majority.
Banking: Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is currently the panel’s top Republican, but it’s possible that he could be serving in the executive branch if former President Donald Trump wins in November. That would make Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) the committee’s top Republican come next year.
On the Democratic side, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) would obviously retain his position if he wins reelection in November. That, of course, is far from a sure bet. Next in line would be Sens. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Mark Warner (D-Va.), both of whom already chair high-profile committees they likely wouldn’t relinquish — Armed Services and Intelligence, respectively.
Move further down the list and you’ll see Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) — an intriguing prospect as chair or ranking member. Brown’s no industry darling, but Warren is uniquely feared by the banking sector.
Judiciary and Budget: We’re grouping these together because Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) have traded the top GOP positions on these panels in the past. Graham is currently the Judiciary ranking member, while Grassley serves as the top Budget Committee Republican. They’ll both keep their spots as members on both panels.
Republicans we spoke with expect that if their party wins the majority, Graham would return to the top Budget job and the 90-year-old Grassley would reclaim the Judiciary gavel. If Trump wins in November, having a friendly Judiciary Committee chair will make it much easier for Trump’s judicial nominees to win Senate confirmation.
Environment and Public Works: The EPW Committee will lose its top Democrat when Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) retires in January. Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) could be in the running for the spot, though Whitehouse currently chairs the Budget Committee. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) is expected to remain the panel’s top Republican.
Veterans’ Affairs: If Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) loses his reelection bid, Democrats will likely look to Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) to take over.
Agriculture: With Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) retiring, the top Democratic spot would go to either Sens. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) or Michael Bennet (D-Colo.). Klobuchar currently chairs the Rules Committee.
Appropriations: We fully expect Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.) to retain their positions atop the coveted panel. It’s possible that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could claim a subcommittee gavel once his tenure as GOP leader comes to an end.
For example, McConnell could head up the Defense or State-Foreign Operations panel, the latter of which he led for several years before rising through the leadership ranks. This would allow McConnell to continue to have influence over foreign policy and national security, a stated goal of his.
Energy: Sen. Joe Manchin (I-W.Va.) is retiring. The next three Democrats on the seniority list already chair other committees, so this job could go to Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.).
Heinrich is much more progressive than Manchin and has openly criticized the West Virginian in the past.
On the GOP side, Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is running unopposed to be the GOP whip, which means he won’t have any committee leadership roles. The expectation is that Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) would take over for the Republican side.
— Andrew Desiderio
