The federal government shuts down Friday at midnight. And we’ve hit some major bumps.
On Wednesday afternoon, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer declared that Republicans “do not have the votes” to clear a procedural hurdle and pass the House GOP-drafted CR. That measure would fund the federal government through Sept. 30. Schumer instead wrapped his arms around Democrats’ proposed short-term CR running through mid-April. However, that currently isn’t a live option.
First of all, let’s state the obvious: Republicans have 53 senators. It takes 60 to invoke cloture. So Schumer was essentially saying that Senate Democrats won’t give Senate Majority Leader John Thune the votes needed to pass the CR.
At least not yet.
Thune filed cloture on the House-passed CR Wednesday night, the first step in bringing this partisan showdown to a head. Thune set up a cloture vote for Friday.
At this late stage, a time agreement would be necessary in order to avert at least a temporary shutdown.
There are two basic ways this week can go.
1) What we wrote Wednesday morning is emerging as the most appealing scenario to Democrats. They would provide the votes needed for cloture in exchange for Senate Republican leaders granting them an amendment vote on the Democrats’ CR proposal, which would extend government funding until April 11.
That would permit Democrats to go on record opposing a shutdown while allowing Republicans to pass the House’s CR on their own.
This play really wouldn’t achieve anything substantive for Schumer. It’s theater.
The Democrats’ 28-day CR won’t have the votes needed to pass, even at a simple majority threshold. It’s really a face-saving measure for Democrats who want to show their base that they’re fighting back against President Donald Trump, Elon Musk and DOGE. Several progressive groups released statements Wednesday night praising Schumer and Senate Democrats for their hardline stance on the House CR. We’ll see how these groups react after this showdown runs its course.
Democrats have also been making the case that a shutdown in this particular moment could be one of the worst in history. The issue was a major focus of Democrats’ lunch meeting on Wednesday, which can be interpreted as a sign of where things are headed. More on that in a bit.
Thune told us that Democratic leaders hadn’t yet presented an offer on amendments but added he’s “open to those conversations and discussions.”
“They’re still trying to figure out how they want to see this wrap up,” Thune said of Democrats. “If they want to set up some sort of consent agreement where we vote on that, we’ll see. We just haven’t heard from them yet.”
Thune doesn’t need to grant a Democratic demand for amendment votes. But it would probably be in his interest to do so. It could be the only way to unlock a time agreement, allowing the Senate to pass a funding bill before the Friday night deadline. So the clock is giving Democrats a bit of leverage here.
Democrats say a short-term CR allows more time for negotiations over an omnibus spending package to fund federal agencies for the rest of FY 2025. And it’s something that top GOP appropriators and defense hawks were backing just a short time ago.
“Republicans walked away from a bipartisan effort that we were close to completing. And I think they own that decision,” Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) said.
But senior Republican and Democratic appropriators were in talks for three months. They went nowhere in the end. Democrats wanted to put constraints on how Trump can spend money appropriated by Congress. Republicans rejected that out of hand. Plus, the House is already gone.
Here’s what Warnock said when presented with that reality:
“I’m willing to do whatever is necessary to make sure that the people of Georgia are shielded from the pain that I think is coming their way, very sadly.”
Does that mean helping Republicans pass their CR to avert a shutdown? We’ll see.
2) Maybe Schumer and Senate Democrats will hold the line and block the House-drafted CR. This would push the federal government into a shutdown.
Two Democratic senators who were thought to be in play for cloture — Sens. Mark Warner of Virginia and John Hickenlooper of Colorado — said Wednesday night that they’d be a no on the Republican CR. Hickenlooper went as far as to say he’ll be a no on cloture too. So the field of potential Democratic “yes” votes for cloture is dwindling.
Now remember: OMB has massive leeway in a government shutdown. They decide when exactly a shutdown begins. The full effects wouldn’t be felt until Monday at the earliest.
Yet “lapses in appropriations” can cause lots of pain. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers could be furloughed. White House sources tell us that the Trump administration would make it very painful for Democrats as they decide what agencies and services remain open. Democrats are very aware of this, too.
At some point, Congress would have to reopen the government. Maybe a shutdown would force Republicans to the table. Or alternatively, Democrats may simply have to cave at some point. Some Democrats believe their options to get out of a shutdown would be worse than the House-passed CR.
Trump and Musk could use the shutdown as a pretext for laying off even more federal workers, which is exactly what Democrats are trying to head off.
Democrats also haven’t spelled out what a win would look like for them beyond getting a vote on a 28-day CR that can’t pass.
Senate campaign news: We got a first look at an NRSC memo to donors listing New Hampshire’s Senate race as a toss-up now that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is retiring.
