At 4:46 a.m., the Senate passed its “skinny” budget resolution after a nearly 10-hour vote-a-rama, the first step in enacting President Donald Trump’s sweeping legislative agenda.
There are two ways to look at this: This resolution is a bit out of step with the Trump administration. Trump publicly said Wednesday that he likes the much broader House GOP resolution better and hopes Hill Republicans rally around that.
But to their credit, Senate Republicans understand that Trump’s moods and preferences shift like the wind. They averted a last-minute disaster by getting Trump to bless the process and passed their budget resolution.
Let’s be clear: This is a win for Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). Giving Trump “optionality” if the House GOP plan fails was a smart move by Thune. It’s a recognition that Speaker Mike Johnson is working with a very small – and often turbulent – majority where things can go off the rails quickly.
There were a few notable amendment votes during the vote-a-rama, which is mostly an exercise for the minority party to force uncomfortable — yet non-binding — votes.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) joined all Senate Democrats in voting for an amendment that would prevent tax cuts for billionaires while food prices are rising. Collins and Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) later backed a Democratic amendment that would prohibit tax cuts for wealthy Americans if any Medicaid funding is cut. The pair also voted for an amendment barring any reductions of Medicare or Medicaid benefits. (More on this angle in a bit.)
So now, the Senate waits. Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer plan to have their budget resolution on the floor next week. Scalise told us he expects it to pass. Johnson, however, told us he isn’t so sure it will get through the House next week but perhaps the week after. Whenever the House passes its resolution, the two need to be melded together. Both chambers must pass the same resolution in order to kick off reconciliation in earnest. Then Republicans can begin constructing the package that will contain the policies in Trump’s agenda.
There are lots of complications here. Let’s get into it.
Johnson’s challenge. If you are a House Republican from a nominally red district, is it worth it for you to vote for the House GOP leadership’s budget resolution?
This resolution includes instructions for the House Energy and Commerce Committee to find $880 billion in cuts. This will undoubtedly include Medicaid and social-safety net cuts that could affect millions of low-income Americans and children.
Now, will these cuts impact Medicaid benefits and beneficiaries? Johnson says no, Republicans will only target waste, fraud and abuse. But Democratic leaders say they will have an impact, and political groups affiliated with House Democrats are already running ads accusing Republicans of cutting Medicaid. This will only intensify as this partisan fight unfolds.
If you’re one of these House Republican moderates, why not try to sink the House’s budget resolution and hope that Johnson and his leadership team eventually bring up the Senate version later on?
There are two lines of thinking here.
Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) represents one. The third-term lawmaker told us she’s a “lean no” on the budget resolution.
Malliotakis said she needs more clarity from leadership on where the Energy and Commerce Committee is going to come up with $880 billion in cuts and what that would mean for districts like hers — Staten Island and a sliver of Brooklyn — where many people rely on Medicaid. Malliotakis also pointed to concerns about tax cuts getting squeezed because of deficit hawks’ demands.
“It seems a lot of attention is being paid to members of the Freedom Caucus who want significant cuts,” Malliotakis said. “But yet those of us who represent these districts that could potentially bear the brunt of the cuts are not being… engaged as much.”
Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon, perennially of the most politically vulnerable House Republicans, also told us he needs better assurances there won’t be major Medicaid cuts in the final bill. Here’s more:
“I want to get this done, but $880 billion out of E&C — it sounds like that would be deep cuts to Medicaid. And so I’ve asked the question, how can you cut $880 billion without significantly cutting Medicaid? And I want the leadership to show me, or in this case the chairman,” Bacon said.
Then there are those who are buying into Johnson’s argument, such as Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.). LaLota, who represents central and eastern Long Island, is a “yes” on the budget resolution because he wants to begin debate on the particulars of the reconciliation package and sees the budget resolution as simply a preliminary step to get there.
But to support the final reconciliation bill, LaLota has a number of demands, ranging from common GOP expectations like locking in lower individual tax rates and shielding Medicare and Social Security from cuts to big items for New Yorkers. That includes a higher cap on deducting state and local taxes than the 2017 tax law and keeping that law’s alternative minimum tax changes.
The funding debate. Lumped into reconciliation and almost everything else in the Capitol right now is the March 14 funding deadline, which is three weeks from today.
You won’t be surprised to hear that the Four Corners of the appropriations committees – the chair and ranking members of the House and Senate panels – haven’t reached a topline spending deal. Democrats are insisting on new limits on how Trump can and must spend money. Republicans have resisted that.
We’ve been saying that this impasse was coming for weeks. The two sides need to make real progress next week or else a shutdown is entirely possible.
