Senate Republicans have three weeks to meet their leadership’s goal of passing a massive party-line reconciliation bill before the July 4 recess.
Privately, GOP senators, the White House and House Republican leaders are split on whether they can pull it off. Some have indicated they don’t see July 4 as a real deadline. Indeed, it’s an artificial one, though the debt limit hangs over the process. But as Senate Majority Leader John Thune knows, nothing gets senators motivated more than a deadline.
Let’s run through what needs to happen — and when — in order for Senate Republicans to pass a bill by the week of June 23. We’ll also discuss the obstacles they’ll face along the way.
This week: GOP senators would need to have the Finance Committee’s legislative text in hand by next Monday. That means the thorniest issues including SALT, Medicaid, clean-energy credits and key business tax breaks need to be hashed out this week.
Republican leaders want to avoid a game of whack-a-mole whereby solving one issue just creates more problems. This is especially true for SALT.
Senate Republicans want to water down the House GOP deal that includes a $40,000 cap on deducting state-and-local taxes. New York House Republicans are warning they’ll tank the bill if that happens. They’re pushing for a meeting with key senators this week.
Senate Republicans also risk picking a fight with House conservatives over the proposed rollback of clean-energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act. At least four GOP senators have raised concerns about the rapid phase-out of the credits.
Schumer speaks: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told us he’s looking to pressure 16 GOP senators whose states would be disproportionately impacted, especially with job losses, if the IRA credits evaporate. This is one of the few areas where Democrats can try to influence the outcome.
“We get them so afraid — and this is happening already — that they go to Thune and say we have to modify Medicaid, we have to modify SNAP, we have to modify the clean-energy provisions,” Schumer said in an interview. “The more we show Americans what’s in this bill, the more they have to change it.”
As we’ve reported, the more changes Senate Republicans make, the harder it’ll be for House Republicans to pass it again.
Senate Republicans are working on a plan involving slower phase-outs for credits, along with varied treatment based on energy type. Schumer said he’s enlisting utility companies in his push, including a scheduled breakfast tomorrow with industry leaders.
“There’s such a vulnerability — the impacts are so deep and devastating — and that’s one of the reasons I’m pushing it,” Schumer said.
Senate Republicans face a similar problem on Medicaid. GOP leaders and the White House also have to work out any tweaks to Trump’s tax priorities in the bill and whether to make business benefits permanent. Both issues came up at a White House meeting last week.
Next week: While Senate Republicans have spent several weeks consulting with the parliamentarian about potential Byrd Rule issues, those questions will be formally litigated as legislative text is released.
Aides in both parties expect this process to take around a week for the Finance portion alone. They’re already duking it out over Byrd Rule compliance for the three bills that have been released. Other committees will release legislative text as soon as Tuesday, kicking off the Byrd process for another chunk.
In addition to exploiting GOP differences on specific issues, Democrats can try to strike what they see as some of the more harmful provisions of the bill by arguing they don’t meet the strict budgetary standards for reconciliation.
Democrats already have a GOP ally on at least one of the major Byrd disputes. Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), is threatening to work with Democrats to strike a provision that ties broadband funding to whether a state tries to regulate AI.
Democrats will also argue that the parliamentarian should strike language limiting federal courts’ ability to hold officials in contempt. The House-passed bill included this provision. It’s unclear whether the Senate Judiciary Committee will keep it.
Week of June 23: That’s two weeks from today. Floor action will take a few days from start to finish, plus a vote-a-rama. The unlimited period of amendment votes will be Democrats’ last chance to exact political pain on Republicans. And GOP leaders will need to make sure none of the amendments are adopted on the floor.
The House will need at least a week to pass the Senate’s bill. House Republican leaders will have no choice but to let the bill lay over for 72 hours. The Republican whip job in that chamber could be epic.
Speaker Mike Johnson has used every phase of this process to build pressure on lawmakers to get to the next step. This is the last step. So Johnson effectively will have one argument to make — that the bill is worthy and it’s time to pass it.
Speaker news: Johnson kicked off his summer donor retreat Sunday at the Four Seasons in Georgetown. Today’s schedule includes a fireside chat with Susie Wiles; a panel with James Blair, Stephen Miller and Karoline Leavitt; a discussion about American strength on the world stage with Steve Witkoff; and Rep. Brett Guthrie (R-Ky.) talking about reconciliation.
On Sunday, Johnson hosted a conversation about defending and growing the majority with GOP Reps. Tom Barrett (Mich.), Nick Begich (Alaska), Rob Bresnahan (Pa.) and Gabe Evans (Colo.) – all of whom flipped blue seats to red.
