Today also marks the one-year anniversary of Mike Johnson becoming speaker.
Senate SWOT: A semi-regular Punchbowl News tradition is our SWOT for each leader — strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
This morning we wanted to do this for the candidates vying to succeed Mitch McConnell as Senate GOP leader: Minority Whip John Thune, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.).
Most Republican senators view the race as a two-man contest between Thune and Cornyn. Scott is focused on his own (likely) reelection in Florida. The 71-year-old Scott threw his hat in the ring largely to represent the views of hardline conservatives who want major changes to the leadership structure.
Thune and Cornyn are a lot alike. Several GOP senators have told us privately that they’d be fine with either as leader and don’t have a strong preference. Regardless of who wins, that person will constantly be compared to the iconic McConnell.
Yet if Donald Trump wins the presidential race, dealing with him in the White House will be a daily — sometimes hourly — challenge for the eventual victor, to put it mildly.
Trump demands total loyalty and is often driven by outside forces — social media and conservative media personalities — who don’t deal within the realm of congressional or political reality. In this respect, Trump could very well be a hindrance to the GOP agenda, especially when it comes to the looming tax debate. That’s not to mention potentially controversial Cabinet or agency nominations.
Both Thune and Cornyn have committed to keeping the filibuster intact, but Trump could very well push them to gut it. Republicans remind us often that they resisted Trump’s calls to do this during his first administration. But the pressure from Trump would be immense if the GOP again controls the trifecta — White House, House and Senate.
If Vice President Kamala Harris wins and Democrats take the House, there could be a new president, new speaker and new Senate majority leader. They’d all be looking to make deals while cementing their own hold on power.
JOHN THUNE
Strengths: Thune has the advantage of incumbency — he’s currently the No. 2 Senate Republican — and as such, he’s viewed as the frontrunner by GOP senators. Thune has also been a strong fundraiser for Republican candidates this cycle.
Thune is affable and well-liked across all factions of the conference. Thune has the benefit of having chaired a Senate committee (Commerce) through which he made his mark on a number of policy areas. He was also a member of the “Core Four” that crafted the 2017 tax bill. Unlike Cornyn — a lawyer — Thune has an MBA.
Thune took over for McConnell for several months last year while the Kentucky Republican was away from the Capitol recovering from a fall.
Weaknesses: Thune has a rocky history with Trump, which is a problem in today’s GOP. They’ve since mended their relationship, but it’s worth remembering that Trump once tried — unsuccessfully — to recruit a primary challenger to take on Thune.
Thune and Trump spoke on the phone as recently as this week, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Opportunities: The 63-year-old Thune — first elected to Congress in 1996 — has a chance to serve as GOP leader for a while if he wins. Probably not as long as McConnell, but there’d be plenty of chances for Thune to shape the party’s direction, with or without Trump.
Threats: The biggest threat to Thune — and Cornyn, frankly — at this point is Trump. If Trump comes out and endorses a candidate, or someone not currently running, it could seriously disrupt the leadership contest. But don’t forget that this is a secret-ballot election.
JOHN CORNYN
Strengths: Cornyn has proven himself to be a powerhouse fundraiser for Republicans, having raised more than $400 million since entering the Senate in 2002. The genial Cornyn — who came to the Senate in 2002 — chaired the NRSC for two terms and has his own joint fundraising committee.
The 72-year-old Cornyn preceded Thune as Senate GOP whip, during which he helped shepherd through the GOP tax bill as well as Trump’s first two Supreme Court nominations. He also successfully whipped a rules change.
Weaknesses: Cornyn, too, has a complicated past with Trump, having openly questioned his ability to win in 2024. But like Thune, Cornyn has repaired his relationship with Trump. Cornyn appeared with the former president on the campaign trail recently.
Since leaving leadership, Cornyn has struck major bipartisan deals with Democrats, from the CHIPS package to the landmark gun safety bill. Conservatives opposed both, and neither won support from a majority of Senate Republicans.
Opportunities: Cornyn’s fundraising operation has the infrastructure to help Republicans all across the country. He knows how to make deals. And he’s a leading GOP voice on immigration, guns, national security and other issues.
Threats: Cornyn is up for reelection in 2026 and has said he’s running. But if Cornyn loses this leadership bid, would he want to go through a tough $100 million-plus race while facing backlash from conservatives back home?
