Top Republicans aren’t sugar-coating how hard it will be to get Congress to enact comprehensive artificial intelligence regulation this year.
“We have a big challenge ahead of us,” Michael Kratsios, who will help lead negotiations on the GOP side as a White House tech adviser, said this week.
Still, following the Trump administration’s release of a set of high-level concepts for AI regulation last week, Kratsios projected confidence that Republicans and Democrats can come together to get the job done before the next Congress.
Getting any major piece of legislation completed this year will be very difficult. But AI doesn’t always fall along the usual partisan lines, and the White House is motivated.
Let’s take a look at why this proposal is likely going nowhere — and why it might just be possible to get something done after all.
The bear case. Assuming legislative gridlock and partisan acrimony will continue is hardly a risky bet these days.
While Republicans pat themselves on the back for getting the ball rolling with the release of the framework, Democrats did everything in their power to communicate just how much more they’ll need to see before they’d view any potential talks as serious.
The White House proposal focused on the so-called four C’s: protecting children, creators, censorship and communities that want to make their own decisions about data centers. It would mostly overrule state AI regulation in the process.
Democrats felt the proposal left out labor, education, recourse for consumers, privacy, transparency, a serious role for states and content authenticity. Democrats will also want to get civil rights, energy and data centers in the mix.
The debate will also have to touch on issues like kids safety and creators, which have bogged down in Congress for years.
Then there’s the midterm question for Democrats: If they believe they will at least win the House, should they wait until next year when they’ll have more leverage for any deal on regulating a transformative technology? Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), a member of House Democratic leadership who’s helping to assemble his party’s AI framework, has made clear he thinks so.
The bull case. All that being said, the White House delivered a framework more quickly than most observers expected. It shows a serious interest in getting something done. How serious will be the big question in the coming weeks.
Most legislating is done by August in an election year, which still leaves lawmakers at least four months of work in committee or closed-door negotiations. If something can’t get done by the election, the best strategy would probably be attaching the agreement to a must-pass vehicle in the waning days of the year. There aren’t many of those, so we’re looking at you, National Defense Authorization Act.
There is also some optimism to be rung out of the unexpected progress House Republicans made on tough issues earlier this month.
That’s when the House Energy and Commerce Committee advanced a package of bills designed to protect kids and teens online. That issue represents the biggest chunk of the White House’s framework.
And of course, the flip side of Democrats’ willingness to wait is Republicans’ incentives to make real concessions. Even if GOP leadership doesn’t think they’re about to lose control of the House, the state-by-state regulatory patchwork they’re scrambling to avoid is only getting more complicated. That’s something the wealthy AI industry and its super PACS are very much aware of.
Republicans could wind up making offers this year they wouldn’t consider if they are in the House minority next year and are focused on making Democrats’ lives miserable.
Speaker Mike Johnson also made the case this week that there is an international component to the sense of urgency.
“Inaction is unacceptable,” Johnson said. “While the window for American AI leadership is open, it will not stay open indefinitely.”
