A crucial policy battle is heating up over the boosted Obamacare subsidies that expire at year’s end.
Democrats are making the enhanced premium tax credits the central demand of their government shutdown stand. Republican leaders have refused to address the subsidies in a short-term CR but cracked the door open to some kind of deal before Dec. 31.
But the GOP remains all over the map on the subsidies. Plenty of congressional Republicans despise the enhanced credits, bashing them as Covid-era benefits that need more means testing. A group of vulnerable and more centrist GOP lawmakers — who are staring down the harsh political reality of spiking health care costs — want an extension. Republicans need direction from the White House, and they don’t have it yet.
Democrats will at some point have to decide what a good enough compromise on the subsidies looks like. For now, they say the credits should be made permanent. But Democrats know Republicans won’t go for that.
The fight is only going to loom larger as the government funding deadline creeps closer. We’ll be tracking every twist and turn and, most crucially, what congressional leaders and President Donald Trump decide.
But there are also key voices among the rank-and-file in Congress poised to influence how this plays out. Here’s who we’re watching.
Senate GOP supporters. The Republican senators interested in an extension of the Obamacare subsidies run the gamut — including Sens. Susan Collins (Maine), Josh Hawley (Mo.) and Tommy Tuberville (Ala.).
We’ve got our eye on Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who made a splash by voting against her party’s CR proposal last week. Murkowski cited, in part, the need to extend the Obamacare subsidies. And Murkowski introduced a bill to do just that.
If dealmakers start to cook something up in the Senate, it’s a good bet that Murkowski will be helping lead the way.
Democrats who deal. While Democratic leaders issue their demands, several rank-and-file lawmakers are quietly working to sketch out what consensus with GOP colleagues could look like.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) has been in talks with some GOP colleagues on the issue, according to a person familiar with the conversations. Shaheen has been taking an active role in messaging the issue for Democrats too.
Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) is trying to help land a deal on the House side. The bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus, which Suozzi coleads, has had discussions on the issue.
Vulnerable House Republicans. GOP House members staring down tough reelection fights — along with some moderate colleagues — are eager for a short-term extension of the boosted tax credits. That could certainly be helpful to them politically with the midterms looming next fall.
If the credits lapse, more than 4 million people could wind up without health insurance coverage by 2034, per CBO.
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) is leading the way for these Republicans and having conversations with fellow backers, House GOP leaders and the Trump administration. The political case for House members like Kiggans is probably the most convincing argument for the White House to get behind an extension.
