New: The House Budget Committee is expected to release its budget resolution today. Yes, we’ve heard this before.
But if Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas), the committee’s chair, wants to hold a markup Thursday, members are going to want to see the text of the resolution today.
What we’ve heard is that Arrington’s budget resolution will call for $4.5 trillion to spend on tax cuts. That’s less than President Donald Trump wants for an extension of the 2017 tax law plus new tax cuts on tipped wages, overtime pay and more — unless offsets can bridge that gap. But that could get difficult quickly.
The resolution will also call for $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, a compromise between the $500 billion to $700 billion that Speaker Mike Johnson originally called for and the $2 trillion hardline Republicans wanted.
There will be a $300 billion increase in mandatory spending, which is likely the increase in border security and defense funding.
The House GOP resolution also assumes 2.8% economic growth, a healthy projection that predicts the economy will boom under Trump.
The big picture. As we’ve reported over the last few days, at this point, the entire reconciliation process is a contest between House and Senate Republicans over whose process wins out. The Senate wants to give Trump a quick win by enacting a more narrow border-energy-defense spending package now and worry about extending the tax rates later. The House wants to do everything in one “big, beautiful bill” due to the super-tight margin of GOP control.
So today is a big day with the House expected to release its text and the Senate beginning to markup its “skinny” resolution.
Both Johnson and Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a very close Trump ally, feel their diametrically different strategies are best for the president.
The speed with which Graham is moving stands in stark contrast to the bumpy road House Republicans are traveling. Johnson promised a budget resolution would be released and marked up last week. Today is Wednesday, and the House GOP budget plan still isn’t out yet with members slated to leave town for a week-long recess beginning Thursday. We understand this is a difficult, hugely complex process. Johnson also faces an unforgiving margin that complicates every move.
It’s not news that the House and Senate are very different bodies with different incentive structures, political dynamics and, perhaps most importantly, margins.
But it’s worth spending a moment digging into just why the House Republican leadership hasn’t been able to strongarm Arrington to release a proposal.
Where we are. Over the last few days, Arrington has been at loggerheads with House Republican leadership and Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) over some very basic elements of the Trump agenda.
Smith has argued that he needs more than $4.7 trillion to deliver everything Republicans want — including Trump’s new tax cut priorities — on top of extending expiring elements of the GOP’s 2017 tax law. Arrington doesn’t want to go that high. Prodded by hardline conservatives, Arrington has also been pushing for steeper budget cuts.
The Senate dynamics. Put yourself in the shoes of Graham and Senate Majority Leader John Thune. The two have been in Congress for a combined 56 years. Their view is that Trump needs a quick win, which is why their two-bill approach makes plenty of sense. It also doesn’t take a genius to look at the dysfunction of the House Republican Conference and realize that things can go sideways very quickly. Which is why the Senate may want to take the lead.
House view. One thing that’s befuddled us in this process is why the House GOP seemingly cannot bend Arrington to its will. Arrington is the chair of the Budget Committee and serves under Johnson. Yet the Texas Republican seems to be in the driver’s seat.
But this ignores a few key dynamics.
1.) The House Budget Committee is a rightward-leaning panel with a lot of deficit hawks and Freedom Caucus types. GOP Reps. Ralph Norman (S.C.), Tom McClintock (Calif.), Lloyd Smucker (Pa.) and Chip Roy (Texas) all have seats on the committee. Arrington needs a budget resolution that can get through the panel.
2.) For the last few years, Arrington has been promoting “Reverse the Curse,” his budget plan. This plan would’ve balanced the budget and created a $130 billion surplus by 2033. So how can Arrington now say that $1 trillion or $2 trillion in cuts is a fiscally responsible plan?
3.) Arrington also seems to be taking advantage of the “bottom-up” approach that Johnson trumpets. The speaker is facilitating a process that Arrington is leading. For better or worse, that empowers the budget chair.
The House GOP leadership was somewhat blindsided by Arrington’s proclamation in a closed party meeting that he’d mark up a budget Thursday. But for now, the GOP leadership is rolling with the plan. And they’re plenty willing to have the budget resolution laid out for a week with the House out of session before a floor vote.
Will this resolution pass the Budget Committee? Maybe. But the leadership does feel confident that this will eventually pass the House.
Also: Trump nominated Gary Andres, the Republican staff director of the House Budget Committee, to be assistant secretary of health and human services. Andres has also been the staff director on the Ways and Means and Energy and Commerce committees.
