… And we’re back. Happy December. The Senate returns today and has votes scheduled for this evening. The House will be back in town on Tuesday.
There are 18 days until government funding expires. The new Congress will be sworn in 32 days from today. And President-elect Donald Trump will take the oath of office for the second time in just 49 days.
Congressional leaders, Trump and President Joe Biden — on a three-day trip to Africa — face immediate challenges finding a deal on a short-term government funding bill. House Republicans have been floating a mid-March end date, less than two months into Trump’s new term. This is also before the April sequester kicks in under the 2023 Fiscal Responsibility Act, which would lead to tens of billions of dollars in cuts to defense and non-defense spending. Both sides want to avoid that, of course.
We’ll note upfront that there’s no deal yet on a CR. But there’s also not going to be a shutdown either. Democrats have no interest in it, and Republicans want to avoid anything to derail their move toward full control of Washington once Trump is back in office. Senior Hill aides say a deal could come together this week.
Yet finding a new end date isn’t going to be easy. Trump and OMB nominee Russell Vought have promised big spending cuts next year while also extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts. The CR vote sets a new deadline for that political struggle to move into hyper speed.
The other big issue is the topline for the FY2025 spending bills. By pushing a CR, Speaker Mike Johnson is trying to avoid upsetting conservative hardliners before a floor vote for speaker in early January. But that could lead to big spending cut fights early next year. Or do Trump and top Hill Republicans try to do it all via reconciliation, despite their potentially historically thin margin of control in the House? It’s going to be an enormous challenge for Hill Republicans, however this comes together.
There are two more issues to keep in mind for the CR — the farm bill and disaster aid.
This is news: The House Republican leadership plans to attach a one-year farm bill extension to the CR. There’s a chance that the leadership will add the farm bill to the annual defense authorization bill — also a must-pass package this December — but GOP aides and lawmakers seem to be leaning toward coupling it with the CR.
The straight one-year extension is a suboptimal result for the House and Senate, given that both chambers have their own agriculture policy proposals. But clearing the legislation will give Trump and the Republicans the opportunity — and challenge — of crafting a farm bill when they have the Washington trifecta next year.
News here: Republican governors wrote House leaders today, railing against a one-year extension.
In addition, Biden has requested nearly $99 billion in disaster aid to deal with deadly hurricanes in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida, as well as other catastrophes. There’s no way the full $99 billion gets approved, but even GOP senators want a vote on a standalone disaster bill.
Whatever the final amount is, it’s likely to be attached to the CR. Meaning that is going to be one complex floor vote with some really interesting political dynamics.
And let’s not forget two other storylines for this week:
Matt Gaetz. Circumstances have made it less dire, but the House Ethics Committee meets Dec. 5 to consider whether to move forward with releasing the report on former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.).
Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration as Trump’s attorney general nominee, so this isn’t quite as urgent now. Yet Gaetz could be in the mix for another administration post. This means Democrats have a real interest in seeing that any report gets released. Plus, they loathe Gaetz and see hitting the former lawmaker as hitting Trump.
For their part, Republicans will argue that Gaetz is no longer under the jurisdiction of the Ethics panel and no report should be released. This already has gotten ugly; just see Democratic ranking member Susan Wild’s (Pa.) comments following the frantic last meeting of the Ethics Committee.
Kash Patel. We will be watching closely how Senate Republicans react to Trump’s selection of Kash Patel to lead the FBI. This is a controversial nomination that will tell us how willing Republicans actually are to take down a nominee. In this case, a conspiracy theorist whose stated goal is to “clean up” the FBI while also threatening to go after the media.
One more thing: Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), who will take over as majority whip in the next Congress, has named Dan Kunsman as his chief of staff for the whip office. Kunsman has served as Barrasso’s chief of staff since 2010 and is his top adviser.
“Asking Dan Kunsman to lead the Whip office is an easy decision,” Barrasso said in a statement. “He has steered me in the right direction since my time in the Wyoming State Senate. Dan has served Wyoming’s elected leaders selflessly for many years, including as my Chief of Staff.”
Kate Noyes will serve as communications director for the whip office. Noyes is currently communications director for the Senate Republican Conference, which Barrasso leads.
