The House and Senate are on recess all week. Rosh Hashanah, the Jewish New Year, begins this evening at sundown and ends on Wednesday at sundown.
The government funding deadline is in eight days.
When we left you last week, the House had just passed a GOP-drafted “clean” bill to extend government funding until Nov. 21. Only one Democrat voted yes. Speaker Mike Johnson then recessed the House until at least Oct. 1, meaning no votes until after a shutdown starts. More about this in a moment.
Senate Democrats followed by blocking passage of the House GOP bill, with only one Democrat crossing the aisle to back the measure. Senate Republicans countered by turning away a Democratic alternative that would’ve kept the government open until Oct. 31.
We’ll be blunt here: Congress is absolutely nowhere in funding the government.
Yes, it’s true that House Republicans are the only ones who have passed a bill. And that talking point was a good one on Friday for about three hours. It’s now Monday and the government will shut down next week.
The political dynamics could shift appreciably in the run-up to that deadline. It’ll be an unpredictable week.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have spent the past few days publicly pressing President Donald Trump to hold a meeting. Trump said he would “love to meet with them.” Nothing is scheduled as of yet.
Keep in mind that Trump right now seems to be focused on exacting revenge on his political enemies. Trump unfurled a string of criticisms against Attorney General Pam Bondi Saturday night because she hasn’t filed criminal charges against former FBI Director James Comey, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Trump later praised Bondi, but the message was clear.
Should they meet, we’re not sure what Trump’s mood will be toward Schumer and Jeffries. But the Democrats’ chief ask — an extension of enhanced premium subsidies for Obamacare — is something many Hill Republicans want as well. So there’s a risk for Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune in having Trump at the negotiating table with Schumer and Jeffries.
Trump may want to wait to see if Schumer and Jeffries feel more pressure as Sept. 30 gets closer or federal agencies actually close down.
Another pathway out of this stalemate is to try to enact a stopgap funding bill into 2026 instead and attach the enhanced Obamacare tax credits onto that. This seems unlikely, although figures in both parties have floated it to us.
Johnson and the House GOP leadership appear to be comfortable with having the House out of session next Monday and Tuesday as the government shuts down.
This ranks high on the list of all the questionable moves we’ve seen in recent years.
The week ahead. Dozens of House Democrats are going to be in D.C. this week, including Jeffries and other leaders. The Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s Annual Legislative Conference begins Wednesday and runs through the weekend.
The Senate, which rejected both the GOP CR and a Democratic counter-proposal on Friday, will be back in session on Sept. 29.
Thune is expected to force a vote on the House bill again next Monday evening as he looks to squeeze Democrats. The Senate is set to hold another procedural vote on the bill, but even if there are 60 senators backing the measure — which is extremely unlikely — a vote on final passage couldn’t occur before the shutdown deadline without unanimous consent.
Meanwhile, several lawmakers from both parties will be in New York during the first half of the week for the United Nations General Assembly. Trump himself is attending the annual gathering beginning this evening.
The politics. Schumer and Jeffries’ position is hard to explain to the American public, and Trump has the bully pulpit — if he can stay on message.
In addition to the Obamacare subsidies extension, Democrats are demanding that Trump and GOP Republican leaders roll back the massive Medicaid cuts in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. They also want the White House to forgo any more rescission packages and restore hundreds of millions of dollars in public broadcast financing. Most of these asks are non-starters.
Democrats have also taken to calling the GOP CR proposal a “dirty bill,” as opposed to a “clean CR.” Yet that’s a Washington insider game that will have a tough time breaking through. And Republicans are hitting the “Schumer shutdown” angle hard.
But rank-and-file Democrats say that by focusing on affordability — a pressing political issue — they can win the messaging war.
“Our super secret plan is just to tell the truth,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said. “If the American people know what’s going on, then the Republicans will have to roll back those health care cuts, and that will keep the government open.”
“People want us to help them with the affordability of health care,” Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said. “That’s what we need to do.”
