Welcome back, Congress! Now that the election is finally over (almost), the House and the Senate will kick off a frantic lame-duck session even as President-elect Donald Trump rushes to staff up his new administration.
Government funding, the NDAA and the farm bill are all on the docket for the period between now and Jan. 2. There are GOP leadership elections this week — we have two items below — and an array of Republicans under consideration for roles in the Trump administration.
GOP congressional leaders also are scrambling to get ready for Trump’s first 100 days in office. By April 30, Republicans want to renew the Trump tax cuts, and pass a swath of new energy policies and border security provisions.
In short, this will be a furious period of legislating, planning and political maneuvering for Capitol Hill and Trump. Let’s get into it.
1) Government funding. The current government funding resolution expires on Dec. 20. Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, President Joe Biden and Trump have to make a decision quickly on how they want to handle this.
Johnson is under pressure from hardline conservatives to extend government funding until early 2025 rather than cut a deal with Democrats. You’ll recall Johnson tried to do this and failed in September. Johnson needs these conservatives for the speaker vote at the start of the next Congress. While Trump’s backing will keep hardliners on Johnson’s side, the speaker still has to tread carefully.
Yet delaying passage of the FY2025 spending bills threatens to upset the timetable for Trump’s agenda. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise wants to pass a reconciliation bill within 100 days, so having a funding deadline during that period is a problem.
Remember — Trump went through this already in 2017. Congress didn’t finish the annual spending bills until May that year.
Of course, Biden and Senate Democrats are still in charge. They’ll want to lock in some spending priorities for next year before they lose power — meaning cut a deal on the spending bills rather than a continuing resolution.
Johnson has been talking to Trump frequently since last week’s election, and the two will meet Wednesday in Washington (along with the new Senate GOP leader.) Ultimately, this decision will be up to Trump. We’ll see how far Johnson can sway him.
2) The House margin. House Republicans are the clear favorites to retain control of the House. It’s not AP-call official yet, but Democrats were dealt three crushing blows over the weekend.
First, freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Colo.) formally conceded to Republican challenger Gabe Evans. Then, Reps. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) and Juan Ciscomani (R-Ariz.) dispensed with their Democratic challengers. House Republicans only need to win one more seat of the remaining seven uncalled toss-up races to retain the majority.
Republicans currently lead in Alaska’s at-large seat, California’s 13th District, California’s 22nd District, California’s 41st District and California’s 45th District. So it’s exceedingly likely the GOP will pull this out.
We expect Republicans to control between 221 to 223 seats. This is basically the same as what they have currently.
It wasn’t all bad news for Democrats. George Whitesides beat Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.).
3) Who else will Trump tap? Trump has announced his intention to nominate Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) as ambassador to the U.N. and Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) to be national security adviser.
This leaves Johnson with a barebones House majority early in the next Congress. Everything will have to proceed perfectly, which isn’t what House Republicans do.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is going to be Trump’s pick for secretary of State. Senate Republicans will lose a vote, but Florida GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis will move quickly to fill the vacancy.
Remember, majorities are precarious no matter what. Lawmakers get sick and die. They get indicted. They retire suddenly. There are always unforeseen events during every Congress.
4) Leadership elections and the new Congress. We don’t anticipate a serious challenge to anyone currently in House GOP leadership. Although there is some concern in House GOP circles that NRCC Chair Richard Hudson will get a challenger. We don’t see this as a real threat.
The House GOP leadership elections kick off Wednesday with the candidate forum from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. Leadership elections will run from 2:30 p.m. to 7 p.m.
Also keep an eye on the races for House committee chairs. Energy and Commerce and Financial Services are both very competitive. Separately, we hear that Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) is in the mix to chair the House Rules Committee, a post appointed by the speaker.
The House GOP leadership is also working on their rules package, which will be ratified internally on Friday morning. Top Republicans are skeptical they’ll be able to change the motion to vacate provision, which currently allows one member of the House to trigger a vote to oust the speaker. This is a big defeat for Johnson, who punted on changing the MTV last Congress only to find himself with a similarly slim majority this time around.
Similarly, it may be difficult for the moderates in the Republican Main Street Caucus and the GOP governing group to put in place their preferred policy that Republicans get punished for voting against procedural motions on the floor.
