We wish we could say we didn’t see this coming.
Speaker Mike Johnson’s 1,547-page overstuffed CR officially died on Wednesday, less than a day after the congressional leadership posted it online.
At first, the House Republican Conference was aghast — truly aghast — at the size and scope of the bill. And then Elon Musk, President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance put the final nails in the coffin, saying the mammoth package was absurd, obscene and must include a hike in the debt limit or else.
Johnson’s months-long effort to craft a CR went up in smoke — quite predictably.
We’re going to explain all the dynamics the leadership in both parties are now facing.
The options and what’s next. At some point today, House Republicans and Democrats will likely have separate party meetings to chart their path forward. Democrats have announced their meeting for 9 a.m. We’ll talk more about them below.
But make no mistake — this is Johnson and Trump’s mess to solve. And we’re inching toward a shutdown as government funding runs out at midnight Friday.
Johnson was mostly MIA Wednesday, holed up in his Capitol office for hours without showing his face. Even the House GOP leadership team felt like they were being kept in the dark about what was happening.
Late in the evening, Johnson met with Vance, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) and Rules Committee Chair Michael Burgess (R-Texas). Jordan and Roy are conservative hardliners. Diaz-Balart is a senior appropriator.
As Scalise left around 10 p.m., he told reporters “We’re not there yet” when asked whether the debt-limit boost would be part of any new government-funding plan. “A lot of things have come up,” Scalise added.
A somewhat obvious play may be a funding bill with a two-year debt-limit extension. Why? Because Trump supports increasing the debt limit now. Given how volatile Trump was during his first term, there’s no guarantee he’ll do this again. (For what it’s worth, Biden administration officials estimate the debt limit won’t be reached until sometime next summer. GOP leaders were planning to handle it in a reconciliation bill).
Trump is giving Johnson cover for the time being. It’s limited, however. Because Trump, once again, has put his party in a bind. There are probably dozens of Republicans who have never voted for raising the debt ceiling. Now Trump is forcing them to do so.
Here’s another major sticking point — what happens to the $100 billion in disaster funding and an extension of the farm bill? Good question. Those are pretty much must-pass bills. So Johnson needs to find a way forward on those too.
The key question here is whether Roy and other conservatives are pushing for offsets to the disaster spending. The Texas Republican frequently demands offsets to emergency spending — and those will be a non-starter with Democrats and the Senate. But spending cuts could be attractive to Team Trump.
Johnson has almost no choice in another matter — he’ll probably need to take this bill to the House Rules Committee today. That means whatever Johnson does will have to pass muster with Roy and Reps. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). Democrats won’t help Republicans at any part of this process. This is all on the GOP now.
And what about the numerous other provisions in the CR package? They’re dead, forget about them. Maybe they can be enacted in the next Congress.
How damaged is Johnson? Let’s start at the beginning. It always made sense for Johnson to clear the decks by passing funding through September 2025. But he didn’t want to. Johnson aides said it would be an untenable play call. Scalise — the most seasoned member of leadership — advocated for a series of minibuses. He lost that argument.
Trump even said Wednesday night that “[e]verything should be done, and fully negotiated” before he takes office. That was the case a lot of people made to Johnson.
Johnson compounded his problems by going the CR route. He turned the CR into a quasi-omnibus by allowing so many different provisions to be included. Johnson insisted on billions of dollars in economic aid to farmers, which opened the door wide open for Democrats to pile on their requests. And Johnson felt like he had to accede to them because the Louisiana Republican knew conservatives would never support anything.
The problem got worse when Johnson didn’t put the CR on the floor Wednesday despite pleas to do so from other members of his leadership team. Democrats and even some Republicans think the CR would’ve passed at that point.
It was obvious to us — and most other members of Johnson’s leadership team — that the speaker badly misjudged the mood of the House Republican Conference. Johnson blindsided members, which is worse. And that’s to say nothing of his miscalculation of Trump’s desires, wants and equities in the fight. And how about Democrats? Can they trust Johnson to do another deal after this episode?
So how damaged is Johnson? The speaker election is in 15 days. There are members — more than a dozen — who assert that Johnson won’t be the speaker in the next Congress. It’s early. Let’s see how Johnson gets out of this mess.
And how about Trump? This is how Trump governs. Nothing is agreed to until he signs a bill into law. But let’s just say that the core of Trump’s frustration — that Congress was leaving him to handle a debt-limit increase next year — isn’t absurd. The GOP leadership should’ve always tried to deal with the debt limit in the lame duck.
