Iran remains the biggest crisis facing President Donald Trump — diplomatically, politically and economically.
U.S. forces fired on and seized an Iranian cargo ship on Sunday, sparking fears of renewed fighting. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and oil prices are nearing $100 per barrel again. Plus, Trump is threatening to attack Iran’s infrastructure unless a peace agreement is reached.
Vice President JD Vance, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are headed to Islamabad, Pakistan, for another negotiating session with the Iranians. While Trump has hinted that a deal isn’t far off, he’s said that repeatedly, so it’s fair to be skeptical.
Remember that Hill Republicans are eager to better understand the end game in Iran — although they don’t vote that way.
On the home front. Back on Capitol Hill, Republican leaders are entering yet another legislative gauntlet, with just a couple of weeks to pass a pair of high-profile bills despite a badly divided House Republican Conference, frustrated GOP senators and an itchy White House. The House and Senate are in for the next two weeks and then lawmakers leave town for a 10-day recess.
Top of the GOP agenda is finding some way to extend FISA Section 702, which expires April 30. Late Thursday night, House Republicans embarrassingly rejected a five-year FISA extension with reforms and an 18-month clean reauthorization that Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson were pushing. Now, Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune have to find a way out of this GOP impasse.
Below, we’ll discuss in detail the 65-day Department of Homeland Security shutdown, as well as the budget reconciliation process for ICE and Border Patrol.
Let’s talk about FISA. Johnson, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer are in a terrible spot following last week’s FISA debacle.
When House Republicans rejected both a GOP-leadership-backed FISA Section 702 deal and a clean 18-month extension, it wasn’t just a legislative blunder of epic proportions. It also weakened House Republicans’ negotiating position as members tried to exert their influence to overhaul the surveillance law.
Thune has made it clear that the Senate is prepared to take over the process of reaching a bipartisan FISA deal. On Friday, after the Senate passed the House’s 10-day extension, Thune took an initial procedural step on a three-year clean extension of the 702 program. This essentially gives the Senate a vehicle to use.
That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy for the Senate, however. There are privacy hawks and civil libertarians in both parties demanding reforms to a program that’s long drawn bipartisan scrutiny.
“A lot of promises have been made, that it’s fixed, and there’s nothing to see here and we need to move on,” Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said. “There’s been a lot of abuse over there, and if you trust the government, you failed history class.”
On the left, privacy hawks like Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) are as emboldened as ever. Wyden last week begrudgingly allowed the Senate to pass the House’s 10-day extension by unanimous consent. But the Oregon Democrat, a longtime Intelligence Committee member, vowed that he and his allies would “go to the mat” on their proposals to rein in the program.
And if the Senate passes a FISA deal, can Johnson put it on the floor? Johnson wants to extend FISA, but he understands the limitations within his conference.
Additionally, some of the 12 House Republicans who voted down the Johnson plan have quietly begun to work with Democrats on a possible 18-month bipartisan FISA compromise.
Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) and Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), among others, have initiated talks with Democratic Rep. Jim Himes (Conn.) and Jamie Raskin (Md.), the ranking members of the Intelligence and Judiciary panels respectively. There’s no deal yet, but the (maybe longshot) goal is to win over a couple dozen Democrats who could vote for a FISA rule on the floor. Then a bipartisan package could pass.
This is both a problem and an opportunity for Johnson. If Fitzpatrick, LaHood and other moderates are ready to pair up with Democrats, that means they’re tired of House GOP leaders catering to the House Freedom Caucus. Then again, Johnson may have to take any FISA deal he can get depending on the situation. Plus, if it passes the House, it’ll pass the Senate.
It’s not entirely clear what an eventual FISA compromise will look like. But the Trump administration has already all-but agreed to a five-year agreement that levies enhanced criminal penalties for abuses of the FISA query process, plus requires federal agencies to obtain a warrant while searching FISA Section 702 data for information related to a U.S. citizen.
No SAVE America Act. When the Senate begins voting this week on the budget resolution for ICE and Border Patrol, the SAVE America Act will no longer be the pending business. Another procedural vote will be needed to restart the floor debate on the bill. This will continue to be a challenging issue for Thune to navigate amid unrelenting pressure from conservatives, despite the almost-zero chance the bill can pass.
