It’s a tough time to be a Hill Republican.
Dragged by President Donald Trump into another war in the Middle East, the GOP’s problems are growing worse every day, and there’s no sign things have hit bottom yet.
Trump and top administration officials have struggled to come up with a clear rationale for the U.S. war on Iran, agree on a timeline for ending it or define what victory looks like. Early polling shows a majority of Americans oppose the war. The conflict has rattled global financial markets, and oil prices have spiked. That means higher costs for gas and food when millions are already struggling to pay their bills.
Some Republicans want Trump to just declare victory and end the war right now.
“I think the sooner we get to what the president was talking about yesterday — a decisive, clear end to this conflict — the better,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said at the Punchbowl News Conference on Tuesday. Even hawkish Republicans are saying they don’t want this to drag on endlessly.
The Department of Homeland Security has been shut down for 26 days now due to a bitter partisan fight over ICE and its role in Trump’s controversial immigration crackdown. There’s no end in sight for this dispute either. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was fired by Trump last week, and her top aide, Corey Lewandowski, is reportedly under scrutiny over his role in a $220 million TV ad campaign by DHS.
Plus, the SAVE America Act has become a huge internal GOP fight. Trump has seized on the bill, which would require proof of citizenship and a photo ID to vote in federal elections, as a key to the midterms. Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and conservative activists want to force an end-run around the filibuster despite Senate Majority Leader John Thune warning that there aren’t enough GOP votes to do so.
The Senate is set to debate the bill on the floor as soon as next week, as GOP leaders seek to put Democrats on record opposing the measure. But the MAGA base is already panning it as “failure theatre” given the certain outcome.
As if the stakes aren’t high enough already, Trump is holding up a potential endorsement of GOP Sen. John Cornyn (Texas) over the bill, jeopardizing the longtime incumbent’s chances in the primary runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The fight will be joined in the House in the coming weeks by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), who says she’ll try to force the SAVE America Act onto a FISA reauthorization. FISA is just one of several must-pass bills that need to be taken up this year. The farm and highway bills also expire in September.
None of this guarantees that Republicans will lose the House or Senate. Democrats have major problems, too.
Only 30% of respondents in an NBC News poll had a favorable view of Democrats, versus 52% with a negative view. Republicans have gobs of money, literally hundreds of millions of dollars, to spend on contested races. The House battleground isn’t that large, making a wave unlikely although not impossible despite the rash of GOP retirements. The Senate landscape still favors Republicans, even as one GOP incumbent dinged himself Tuesday night (come on down, Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio.)
But the signs aren’t great for Republicans, as many of them will publicly admit.
“I think if you add in high gas prices, high oil prices, and if we are still bombing Iran with kinetic action — people don’t want to call it war — if there’s still kinetic action that causes oil to be over $100, I think you’re going to see a disastrous election,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) told host Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business’s “Mornings with Maria.”
Moderate angst. Republican moderates are desperate to do something about cost-of-living issues. Yet GOP leaders have struggled for months to coalesce around proposals on health care, permitting, housing and crypto, running into partisan roadblocks and bicameral disputes.
With tax season in full swing, Republicans are banking on average Americans starting to feel some of the new tax benefits created by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Senate is on track to pass its housing package within days, although it’s run into serious House opposition. Energy permitting talks are picking up.
Yet other GOP proposals have hit serious obstacles. The crypto industry’s effort to overhaul its federal regulation remains solidly in limbo, despite hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign contributions over the last two cycles.
Fed chair when? Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve is popular among Senate Republicans. Replacing current Fed Chair Jay Powell is a major priority for Trump.
But as we wrote Monday, not even Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-S.C.) knows when Warsh will appear before the full panel. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) continues to block any Fed nominee from clearing the initial committee hurdle until the DOJ drops its criminal inquiry into Powell.
Reconciliation 2.0. House GOP leaders decided they’re going to forge ahead with trying to pass another reconciliation bill. House conservatives are eager to get going.
However, there’s still a ton of public pessimism among Republicans in both chambers that reconciliation 2.0 has a chance of actually panning out.
