Is President-elect Donald Trump leaving his closest Senate allies out to dry?
Some of them fear that’s exactly what’s happening with former Rep. Matt Gaetz’s (R-Fla.) floundering nomination to serve as attorney general.
We wrote in Wednesday’s PM edition that a strategic divide has emerged between Trump’s transition team and his biggest Senate boosters. Sources familiar with the process say the Trump team has yet to articulate a clear plan for winning the confirmation fight, as even some public Gaetz supporters in the Senate tell us there’s no path to 50 votes.
That dynamic has GOP senators wondering what the Gaetz endgame looks like. Will Gaetz get a confirmation hearing? Will it be a circus? And will Trump insist that the nomination move forward even if enough Republicans come out against Gaetz to guarantee his defeat?
Inside Gaetz’s first day: Alongside Vice President-elect JD Vance, Gaetz met with members of the Senate Judiciary Committee on Wednesday, in addition to incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune — the man ultimately responsible for getting Trump’s nominees through the confirmation process.
Thune told us the meeting “went well,” adding that Gaetz is “doing what he should be doing” by sitting down with senators. A Trump transition official said Gaetz has been “nonstop on the phones with [senators] and is committed to working with them throughout this process.”
At the same time, the House Ethics Committee was deadlocked on Wednesday over whether to publicly release the report on its investigation into Gaetz’s alleged sexual misconduct and illicit drug use. That led Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) to introduce a privileged resolution to force a House vote mandating the release of the report.
With members leaving today, Casten’s resolution won’t get a vote until after the Thanksgiving recess. The Ethics Committee is scheduled to meet again on Dec. 5. In the meantime, the drip-drip of damaging information continues.
This is interesting: We asked Thune if he thinks it’s possible for Gaetz to get 50 votes needed for confirmation. Thune’s response:
Other Republican senators cautioned against relying too much on statements from colleagues that they won’t vote for Gaetz.
“The sight of the gallows concentrates the mind,” added Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.), who met with Gaetz on Wednesday. “I’ve listened to a lot of people talk, and grunt, and rant, and rave, and give speeches, and go right down there and vote differently.”
But a Gaetz confirmation vote is likely two months away — if it happens — an eternity in a fast-moving situation like this. GOP senators who support Gaetz are privately wondering whether they’ll end up wasting precious time and political capital on a toxic candidate who many now believe is unconfirmable.
With 53 Republicans in the chamber come January, Gaetz can’t afford to lose more than three votes. Far more than that number have indicated privately that they oppose Gaetz. Some of Gaetz’s supporters in the chamber told us they think most of those holdouts aren’t persuadable.
Gaetz opponents even have quietly discussed reaching out to Trump or his inner circle and asking for the nomination to be withdrawn. It hasn’t happened yet, but there are conversations about this option occurring within Republican ranks.
Gaming it out: The universe of GOP senators who’d be willing to take the blame publicly for tanking Gaetz’s nomination is small.
Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), whose brand of maverick is increasingly rare in the Senate, are the obvious possibilities. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell could also be in that group. McConnell won’t be in leadership anymore and will be free from the accompanying political pressures.
After that come some allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy who dislike Gaetz over his successful efforts to oust the California Republican from the speakership.
Then there are senators genuinely disturbed by the allegations against Gaetz. While Gaetz has denied any wrongdoing — and the Justice Department didn’t charge him despite a lengthy criminal investigation — there are still major concerns over his judgment, temperament and ability to lead a department with more than 115,000 employees.
Stefanik off to the races: One nomination that’s not in trouble is that of Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), tapped by Trump to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Stefanik has a second round of key meetings scheduled today with McConnell and Collins, along with Sens. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Steve Daines (R-Mont.), according to a source familiar with the plans.
And the New York Republican is already picking up bipartisan support, with Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) saying he “looks forward” to voting to confirm Stefanik.
The expectation from Trump’s transition team is that Stefanik and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who was nominated to lead the State Department, will move quickly through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee early next year.
