Here’s a question that’s bouncing around Republican circles in Washington: Is President Donald Trump losing sway on Capitol Hill?
On issue after issue, both in Washington and in state capitals around the country, Republicans are giving Trump the stiff arm. They’re ignoring his policy demands and overlooking his diatribes, even as they continue pledging allegiance to Trump politically.
Just consider what’s happened this week.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune is all but dismissing Trump’s call to pause the federal gas tax to help Americans cope with sky-high gas prices stemming from the war in Iran. Speaker Mike Johnson called it an “intriguing idea” but noted it came with challenges.
House and Senate Republicans are cool to the Secret Service’s demand to spend $1 billion on fortifying the White House, in part to protect Trump’s controversial new ballroom, a project Congress has never approved.
Secret Service Director Sean Curran met with Senate Republicans on Tuesday to press them on approving the security funding in the upcoming immigration reconciliation bill. We asked one GOP senator whether it was convincing, and they said, “Nope.”
On Monday evening, Trump called on Congress to pass the Senate’s housing bill. But Johnson said the House would continue to work on changes to the measure, an explicit rebuke of Trump’s approach even as senators are clamoring for an easy legislative win on affordability.
House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill (R-Ark.) said “no” when we asked if Trump’s post will prompt him to move quicker.
Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.), the panel’s vice chair, was even more direct.
“I am not focused on the president’s Truth Socials on this,” Huizenga said.
Republicans in the South Carolina state senate rejected a motion Tuesday to extend their session to redraw congressional lines in The Palmetto State. Republicans could turn a 6R-1D map into a 7R map, eliminating longtime Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn. More on that in a moment.
Here are some caveats: Republicans oftentimes fold to Trump — at Punchbowl News, we called it “KTF,” or “Known to Fold.” He remains the most powerful figure in his party. Trump is conducting a war in the Middle East with practically no oversight or pushback from Congress. He’s taken unilateral actions that other presidents would balk at, including deploying the National Guard inside U.S. cities and mass firings at federal agencies.
Plus, we’ve seen what happens to some Republicans who ignore him. A bunch of Indiana Republican state senators are out of a job after resisting Trump’s push to redraw the state’s map.
But this opposition has been on a slow boil for months now.
— Republicans rebuffed Trump’s demand to put language blocking state AI regulations in the NDAA last year.
— The Senate GOP has resisted multiple Trump demands to blow up the filibuster and end the “blue-slip” tradition that’s stymying many of his U.S. attorney nominees.
— In January, Trump called on Congress to pass legislation to end sanctuary cities. Crickets on that front.
— Congressional Republicans still haven’t sent the White House the SAVE America Act, which Trump has been hammering for months.
Ironically, it’s been the Senate — not the House — that’s more aligned with the White House’s priorities. Despite Trump’s constant prodding of Thune over the filibuster and the SAVE America Act, it was the Senate that pursued Trump’s preferences on FISA and DHS funding — not the House. The same is now true with the housing bill.
Trump’s general view is that Congress is a nuisance, according to people familiar with his thinking. Trump would rather pursue his own priorities than deal with wobbly GOP lawmakers.
The one area where this White House has been successful is pushing Senate Republicans to confirm Trump’s nominees. Thune’s chamber has done so at an impressive pace. Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as chair of the Federal Reserve by the end of the week — though it would’ve happened sooner if not for Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).
The indifference goes both ways. Trump has ignored some Hill Republican demands, too. He refused to negotiate a deal with Democrats to extend the Obamacare enhanced premium subsidies, angering vulnerable Republicans who are dealing with the political fallout.
Yet the “do-whatever-Trump-wants” incentive structure for many House and Senate Republicans has flipped. Trump’s approval rating is in the 30s. Most Republicans are through their party primaries, meaning there’s no longer a risk of a Trump-backed primary challenger. As the political environment worsens for the GOP, many rank-and-file Republicans are finding it necessary to split with the president.
Case in point: Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who’s facing a formidable challenger in former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), said Tuesday he wanted more information about the White House’s ballroom security funding request before committing to backing it.
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) — who’s facing off against former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska), a top recruit of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer — has also been voting like he’s vulnerable. Sullivan voted to advance Democrats’ Obamacare subsidies proposals on the floor last year. During a recent vote-a-rama, Sullivan voted for several Democratic amendments focused on cost-of-living issues.
As a reminder, Trump won Ohio and Alaska in 2024 by 11 points and 13 points, respectively.
