Here’s how the White House is selling President Donald Trump’s agenda to Senate Republicans.
Top administration officials are aggressively making the case to GOP senators that the massive Republican reconciliation bill is a political winner — and that they should be going on offense to sell it. It comes as Democrats hammer vulnerable Republicans over Medicaid cuts and other controversial provisions in the reconciliation package.
News: During a lunch meeting at the NRSC on Tuesday, Trump’s political team, led by White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair, presented polling data to Senate Republicans showing that key elements of the bill are popular with the public.
The polling data centered on individual tax provisions that are major Trump priorities, including no taxes on tips and overtime pay, according to GOP senators and a White House official. Senate Republicans have indicated they want to impose limits on the latter due, in part, to the cost.
Both of these provisions polled above 70%. Other proposals were even more popular, such as raising the maximum child tax credit to $2,500 per child, modernizing air traffic control and extending tax cuts for lower-income Americans.
Blair also addressed what Democrats see as the GOP’s biggest political vulnerability — kicking millions of Americans off Medicaid. Blair argued that Republicans should highlight the imposition of tougher work requirements for Medicaid because it moves poll numbers against Democrats.
Senate Republicans were shown an ad from Senate GOP Conference Chair Tom Cotton’s super PAC that attacks Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) over Medicaid. The ad highlights Republicans’ push to prevent undocumented immigrants from obtaining Medicaid benefits and attacks Ossoff for opposing those efforts.
The ad, which is running on digital platforms throughout Georgia with an initial $100,000 buy, is one of the first examples of Republicans using the reconciliation bill to go on offense.
Blair cited this approach to argue that a “no” vote is politically risky for an incumbent Democrat because most Americans oppose allowing undocumented immigrants to enroll in Medicaid.
Blair showed polling data on that particular question, as well as whether to hire more immigration enforcement officers. Both polled slightly over 50%.
Here was Sen. Jim Banks’ (R-Ind.) impression after the presentation:
“It’s a big winner. It’s delivering on President Trump’s biggest priorities to help working class families and providing the biggest tax cut, maybe ever.”
Meanwhile, key House Republicans are framing Trump priorities, like tax cuts on tips and overtime pay, as a crucial part of their political message. Some of the Trump campaign pledges strike a more populist tone. House Republicans see this as helpful to blunt Democrats’ attacks over tax cuts that benefit the wealthy.
House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said Republicans should focus on selling what the tax bill does for working families, farmers and small businesses.
“No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, tax relief for seniors, increasing the child tax credit, increasing the standard deduction — those are all wins for working families that I represent in southeast Missouri,” Smith said.
The flip side. Not everyone was persuaded by Blair’s presentation. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), who’s been on the receiving end of Trump’s attacks over his opposition to the reconciliation bill, told us that “there will be a point at which it’s a political loser.”
“Expectations were raised that something really good was happening from a fiscally conservative point of view,” Paul added. “And then when that hasn’t materialized, I think it’s gonna be a huge downer from our base.”
It’s worth noting that Blair has gone after Paul as well over the Kentucky Republican’s criticism of the reconciliation bill.
And as we’ve told you, Democrats see the GOP reconciliation package as a political gold mine and have argued that Republicans are late to the messaging game.
“We have laid the groundwork that is weakening them as they go through the next year, because they’re voting for something they know is wrong,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a recent interview. “The data shows that even if people like a little piece of the bill, they hate the overall bill. The overall negative theme has overwhelmed any positives.”
Looking ahead. Senate Republicans’ work on their reconstruction bill is far from finished. Rank-and-file senators are eager to hear how GOP leaders plan to address the most controversial elements of their reconciliation package. House and Senate conservatives are also demanding hundreds of billions of dollars more in spending cuts.
Senate Finance Committee Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) is expected to give Republican senators a high-level overview of his panel’s yet-to-be-released legislative text during a conference meeting later today.
McIver indictment: Tuesday’s federal criminal indictment of Democratic Rep. LaMonica McIver (N.J.) is setting off shockwaves inside the House Democratic Caucus.
Democrats see this as yet another Trump power play, along with sending the California National Guard and Marines into Los Angeles, stepping up ICE raids nationwide and this weekend’s big military parade in D.C., which just happens to coincide with Trump’s 79th birthday.
Interim U.S. Attorney for New Jersey Alina Habba – Trump’s former defense attorney – announced the three-count indictment of McIver, who was elected to the House in September to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne (D-N.J.). McIver faces two felony counts and one misdemeanor.
The indictment grew out of a May 9 protest at an ICE detention facility in Newark. McIver, plus Reps. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) and Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, were at the Newark site when ICE agents moved to arrest Baraka. McIver allegedly “forcibly impeded and interfered” with federal officers, per the indictment.
In a statement, McIver denied any wrongdoing and said she was carrying out her official duties as a member of Congress while inspecting the facility: “The facts are on our side, I will be entering a plea of not guilty, I’m grateful for the support of my community, and I look forward to my day in court.”
