The Senate is in session today. The House doesn’t return until Wednesday. President Donald Trump is at the White House.
These are critical weeks for Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress, with just over five months left until Election Day. Trump has been bogged down in peace negotiations with Iran. The conflict remains at a stalemate somewhere between war and peace. Trump blames “Dumocrats, and various seemingly unpatriotic Republicans” for not understanding that “it will all work out well in the end.”
House Democrats will push war powers votes this week on both Iran and Lebanon, challenging vulnerable Republicans to once again line up behind Trump. There’s also a discharge petition vote on Ukraine aid to watch.
Plus, we’ll be watching key primaries in California, Iowa and other states this week.
Trump has been directly confronting Congress — especially his own party — on a number of fronts. From defeating GOP incumbents to trying to put his face on U.S. currency to attempting to drastically revise how elections are conducted, Trump continues to push the boundaries of executive power.
All of this has left trust between Trump and GOP senators, in particular, at a low point.
Now Trump and Republicans have a real problem on their hands, with two of the president’s priorities — immigration enforcement and rewarding his political allies — in conflict with each other, forcing GOP lawmakers along for the ride.
Weaponization of reconciliation. The Republican reconciliation bill to fund ICE and Border Patrol through the rest of Trump’s term is in real peril amid strident opposition to the administration’s $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund.
First, let’s map out what Senate GOP leaders see as the ideal — let’s call it “ambitious” — timeline for this week. They want to begin the vote-a-rama on Wednesday night and pass the immigration reconciliation bill Thursday morning after an overnight marathon. Later Thursday, they want to hold a procedural vote on FISA Section 702, which expires June 12. More on that in a moment.
But the anti-weaponization fund is screwing up Trump’s ICE-and-CBP bill. As of now, Senate GOP leaders are struggling to see a clear path to 50 votes to kick off the floor process for the $70-plus billion reconciliation bill.
And Democrats want to make life even harder for GOP leaders.
There are two main avenues for addressing Republicans’ concerns about the fund — relying on the White House to impose guardrails or to scrap the fund entirely, versus addressing them within the bill itself.
Relying on the White House is tricky. Many Senate Republicans don’t trust the administration to honor its word, made worse by Trump’s toppling of GOP Sens. John Cornyn (Texas) and Bill Cassidy (La). All it takes to derail the process is four Republicans. Trump’s retribution campaign has effectively expanded the list of GOP senators willing to do this.
Alternatively, Republican leaders can try to find consensus language to restrict or kill the fund without losing more than three Republicans. Good luck with that.
Even if the initial 50-vote threshold is cleared — meaning there’s an agreement with the White House on addressing the weaponization fund — the drama won’t end.
Democrats will be able to use the vote-a-rama to offer amendments centered on the fund, some at a simple-majority threshold, even if the fund isn’t in the bill. Aides in both parties believe many of these will be considered at a simple-majority threshold regardless of whether the fund is actually mentioned in the underlying reconciliation bill. That decision is up to the parliamentarian.
“Senate Democrats will launch a coordinated effort to kill the slush fund before one cent goes out the door,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a Dear Colleague letter out this morning. “And no matter what Republicans do, we will force them to vote on it.”
GOP leaders believe it’s nearly certain that enough Republicans will provide the votes for at least some of these to pass.
This would turn the vote-a-rama into a true Wild West, forcing Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Majority Whip John Barrasso to negotiate a “wrap-around” before final passage. That process would nullify successful amendments, a daunting task that often requires negotiating with individual senators.
Dem strategy. The anti-weaponization fund and its impact on the reconciliation bill have been a political gift to Democrats.
The twin controversies stemming from the reconciliation bill — the “anti-weaponization” fund and security funding for Trump’s White House ballroom — fit neatly into Democrats’ midterm messaging: Republicans don’t care about average Americans’ problems.
This morning, three Democratic senators who’ve been targeted by the Trump administration — Sens. Adam Schiff (Calif.), Mark Kelly (Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) — are introducing legislation barring the creation of these funds if they stem from a lawsuit by the president or vice president.
FISA update. Negotiators are close to a bipartisan deal that would reauthorize FISA Section 702 for three years, according to multiple sources involved in the talks.
This is a Senate-driven process, with Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Mark Warner (D-Va.) seeking to maximize Democratic support. There’s been close coordination with the House and the White House.
Aides in both parties expect the final product to pass with support from a majority of Senate Republicans and a minority of Democratic senators.
This is news: The negotiated bill is expected to include a key sweetener to attract votes from privacy hawks who have long called for reforms to Section 702: a provision that narrows the definition of an electronic communications service provider. An ECSP is the type of company that would be required to provide records to the government.
