Shutdown Day 3: Our new Thune interview

IN THIS EDITION

Day Three: How John Thune sees the shutdown

The approps battles won’t get easier after the shutdown

EMILY’s List wades into Ill. Senate primary, angering CBC

Senate NDAA hits crunch time

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Day Three: How John Thune sees the shutdown

Happy Friday morning.

This is day three of the government shutdown. There’s no deal in sight to end this crisis.

We sat down with Senate Majority Leader John Thune on Thursday afternoon. We’ll have more from that interview in a moment.

The state of play. The Senate will vote today for the fourth time on the GOP’s Nov. 21 stopgap funding bill, as well as the Democratic counteroffer. Both are expected to fail, and senators will head home for the weekend. Thune has said the Senate will try again Monday. Informal bipartisan talks on Obamacare subsidies are continuing.

Speaker Mike Johnson will also bring the House back on Monday. That’s going to dial up the temperature of the partisan showdown dramatically. The House hasn’t voted since Sept. 19, a shockingly long break considering what’s going on in Washington.

Plus, the threat by President Donald Trump and OMB Director Russ Vought to enact mass layoffs will add more fuel to the shutdown fire, especially after the administration canceled billions of dollars of federal funding for energy and infrastructure projects in blue states.

There’s one more point to consider: the impact of this crisis is both immediate and cumulative. Things get worse the longer the stalemate goes on. Hundreds of thousands of federal workers were furloughed immediately once the shutdown, a huge blow for them and their families. Reduced or discontinued public services – and how that affects the American public – will become more pronounced with each passing day.

What Thune told us. It’s almost as if Thune is trying to box out Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

In our interview, Thune wasn’t sure whether he’d meet with Schumer later today, which the South Dakota Republican previously indicated was possible. The reason? As we wrote in Thursday’s PM edition, Thune told us he believes the path out of the shutdown runs through rank-and-file Senate Democrats — not Schumer.

Yet this remains an exceedingly difficult situation. The vast majority of the Senate Democratic Caucus wants an Obamacare subsidy extension tied to any bill to reopen the government. Some want even more than that. Thune says he won’t give in on any of these demands. Democrats must vote to re-open the government first.

“Once you start conceding to demands on shutdowns, every time we get up against a deadline, you’re gonna have another shutdown,” Thune said.

For the Democrats who may be willing to accept less than an Obamacare deal to re-open the government — a specific commitment from Thune or a framework for negotiations in writing — that would mean bucking their own leadership and party base. Thune said he gets how hard that is. Already, three Senate Democrats have done so. At least five more would be needed to pass the GOP CR.

Yet for this group, Thune simply can’t guarantee that an Obamacare deal will materialize after the government opens. The issue splits Thune’s conference and has even less support among House Republicans. However, a lapse in the ACA subsidies — and the resulting premium hikes — would be felt by millions of Obamacare enrollees. That’s a major liability for the GOP heading into 2026.

Where Thune and Schumer agree, however, is that Trump’s direct involvement is necessary to spur an Obamacare deal. If Trump wants it, Republicans will fall in line, the thinking goes.

“If there’s a conversation that involves the White House, the president’s involved and he’s driving it, maybe there’s a path forward there,” Thune said. “But I just don’t think we can even get there until we open up the government.”

Speaking of the president… He’s nowhere to be found on the Obamacare discussions. Meanwhile, Trump and Vought are actively making it harder for Congress to get out of this mess.

Thune tried to argue that the White House’s withholding of funding for projects in blue states should be pushing Democrats to vote for the House-passed CR and end the shutdown quickly.

But Vought’s moves are having the opposite effect, hardening Democrats’ resolve to drag this out. These actions further upend the balance of power between the two branches and set a precedent for future administrations. Thune downplayed that risk and said Democrats knew exactly what they were getting into.

“If Trump believes he’s going to get Democrats’ attention with some of the decisions about how he and his team manage the shutdown, that’s now baked in. It’s a reality of where we are. To me, it’s why we shouldn’t do [shutdowns] in the first place,” Thune said. “Everybody knows Russ Vought. And so I think you’re playing with fire when you do this.”

The funding freezes could add yet another complicated dynamic into an already intractable divide: What if Democrats demand the reinstatement of those funds as a condition for voting to reopen the government?

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries declined to say Thursday whether that’s part of the equation. Thune suggested it may not even be possible to reverse those cancellations.

“Boy, I don’t know. That’s why I think they ought to vote to open [the government]. Because once it starts, it’s hard to roll back,” Thune said.

One more thing: We wondered whether Trump, during his private conversations with Thune, has suggested eliminating the filibuster to end the shutdown. He hasn’t, Thune said. But is Thune worried that if the shutdown drags on much longer, Trump could go there?

“Well, there’s always that possibility,” Thune said with an awkward laugh. “We put up with it, obviously, in his first term as president. I could see at some point that being a potential conversation. But that’s not good for anybody… We should avoid that at all costs.”

— Andrew Desiderio and John Bresnahan

Join us in South Bend, Ind. or on the livestream on Oct. 20 at 9 a.m. ET for a conversation with Rep. Rudy Yakym (R-Ind.). We’ll talk to Yakym about the news of the day and how private capital is investing in America. RSVP here!

GOVERNMENT FUNDING

The approps battles won’t get easier after the shutdown

Getting out of the shutdown will be hard. Funding the government for next year isn’t going to get any easier after that.

We’ve yet to see Republican and Democratic leadership meet to discuss topline FY2026 spending numbers. That’ll need to happen to get the vast majority of appropriations bills done.

And before that occurs, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson have to get on the same page over what funding levels they think will be palatable to both House and Senate Republicans.

Remember, House Republicans advanced spending bills largely in line with the Trump administration’s budget request, while the Senate has produced bipartisan bills above or around FY2025 funding levels.

In an interview Thursday, Thune acknowledged the spending levels will have to be higher than the House’s baseline. But the South Dakota Republican noted that’s “always been the case” because of the 60-vote requirement in the Senate.

Thune predicted the first three-bill minibus — MilCon-Va, Legislative Branch and Agriculture — will clear both chambers overwhelmingly. Thune said the hang-up that still needs to be resolved is how much to spend on lawmaker security in the wake of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s assassination and other deadly incidents.

“I think there’s a path forward there,” Thune said. “I mean, I don’t know that there are some of those approps bills you’d ever get passed in the House. But I think there are a good number that you could.”

Worlds apart. There are major gaps to bridge between the chambers’ respective funding levels. The House and Senate defense spending bills are nearly $20 billion apart. The gulf is roughly $12 billion on Labor-HHS.

Appropriators can’t even begin to negotiate those two bills, which make up the vast majority of discretionary federal spending, before they get toplines from party leaders. The White House has to sign off too.

Democrats called on Republican leadership to come to the table to move forward with spending bills. Top Senate Appropriations Committee Democrat Patty Murray (Wash.) said GOP leaders have refused to talk to Democrats about a deal to fund the government. Murray said Thune and Johnson need to “get serious” about negotiating.

Here’s more from Murray:

View from appropriations. At the committee level, House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) is prepared to lose support from some House Republicans in order to get a broader funding deal.

“Whenever we get 60 senators, I usually lose people on my right wing,” Cole said. “So the Democrats will also be in a position to play a role in all 12 of those bills.”

Cole said House and Senate leadership need to give appropriators guidance on how to move forward with the rest of the bills.

Leadership could give appropriators the authority to figure out toplines, Cole said, adding “but I would prefer to have more fingerprints on the murder weapon, personally, than just us.”

— Samantha Handler and Andrew Desiderio

ILLINOIS SENATE

EMILY’s List wades into Ill. Senate primary, angering CBC

News: EMILY’s List, the influential abortion-rights group, will endorse Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s Senate bid today despite vehement objections from members of the Congressional Black Caucus who are supporting Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.).

This is a big deal for a few reasons. EMILY’s List only endorses Democratic women candidates who support abortion rights. And in recent years, it typically hasn’t endorsed if two such women were running against each other in a major primary.

But the group isn’t remaining neutral in Illinois’ Senate race.

“The mission of EMILY’s List is clear — to win races with Democratic pro-choice women,” said Amanda Sherman Baity, the group’s spokesperson. “This is going to be a tough primary, and we can’t afford to sit it out if we’re going to elect another Democratic woman to the U.S. Senate at a time when the bold leadership she will provide has never been more important.”

Sen. Dick Durbin’s (D-Ill.) retirement has created a rare open Senate seat in a blue state. The Democratic primary is a three-way contest between Stratton, Kelly and Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), a prodigious fundraiser who has been airing TV ads since July.

News of the pending endorsement spread last week at the CBC Foundation’s Annual Legislative Conference in Washington, where both Stratton and Kelly were in attendance. Members of the CBC made EMILY’s List aware of their objections, according to sources familiar with those conversations. Both Stratton and Kelly are Black.

Stratton has the backing of Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, support that could come with financial aid. Kelly was endorsed in May by 18 members of the CBC, including Chair Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.). Kelly is a former chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, where she clashed with Pritzker and his orbit.

Another dynamic to keep in mind: The CBC is a powerful and deeply influential group within the House Democratic Caucus and the Democratic Party as a whole. And Pritzker is believed to harbor 2028 ambitions.

The rationale. In the last few cycles, EMILY’s List has been wary of wading into high-profile races with multiple women candidates. It notably didn’t endorse in an open California Senate primary when Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Barbara Lee lost to now-Sen Adam Schiff (D-Calif.).

However, there have been races when this did occur, including in the 2018 midterms when the group backed Stacey Abrams’ primary bid against Stacey Evans in the race for Georgia governor.

In Illinois, Krishnamoorthi has enjoyed an early polling lead. But EMILY’s List staff believe that’s not an insurmountable edge and Stratton is best-positioned to overtake him, according to a person familiar with the group’s thinking. The move wasn’t intended to slight Kelly.

— Ally Mutnick and John Bresnahan

DEFENSE DISPATCH

Senate NDAA hits crunch time

Action on the Senate version of the annual defense policy bill is reaching do-or-die time.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants to get it done. But he acknowledged in an interview Thursday that it may not include a long-negotiated package of amendments due to objections from senators.

Both sides have run hotlines on an underlying amendment proposal that includes at least 18 standalone measures, plus a second manager’s package that has bipartisan buy-in. Thune said that as of Thursday, there were no GOP objections remaining.

But on the Democratic side, Sen. Ruben Gallego (Ariz) wants a vote on his plan to bar military funeral honors the Trump administration granted to Ashli Babbitt. Babbitt, a Jan. 6 rioter and Air Force veteran, was fatally shot by a U.S. Capitol Police officer as she tried to break into the Speaker’s Lobby off the House floor.

“As a combat veteran who fought to defend the Constitution, Senator Gallego believes Ashli Babbitt tried to overturn a free and fair election,” Gallego spokesperson Renata Miller said in a statement. “Why would Senate Republicans be afraid to vote on this issue?”

If agreement isn’t ultimately reached on an amendments package, the Senate would likely move to advance the substitute amendment to its version of the NDAA. That language includes an initial manager’s package of amendments that has been agreed to by lawmakers from both parties.

To the floor? Thune conceded that if lawmakers can’t find consent on a package, the chamber would need to move on to clear the way for bicameral discussions.

“We need to get into conference with the House on it so that we can get it transacted sometime between now and hopefully the end of the year,” Thune said.

Sen. Jack Reed (R.I.), the top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, expressed hope this week that an amendments package could still come together.

“We have to sort out a finite number of amendments and a rule that allows us to get it done efficiently,” Reed told reporters Wednesday. “We’ve done that before. We can do it again.”

The House and Senate have been having pre-conference conversations at the staff level on the NDAA since last week, a Senate aide said. Those discussions involve comparing each chamber’s version of the must-pass bill and identifying potential areas of disagreement that staff directors — and potentially lawmakers — would have to weigh in on once negotiations begin.

— Briana Reilly and Andrew Desiderio

… AND THERE’S MORE

Downtown Download. Major League Baseball has hired both Forbes-Tate and Cornerstone Government Affairs to lobby on “issues related to taxation (TAX), broadcasting of games (COM), stadium airspace (HOM, AVI), and athlete visas (LBR).”

FanDuel has hired Mehlman Consulting to lobby on gambling issues.

The Campaign. Josh Turek, the Democratic state legislator running for Iowa Senate, raised $1 million in the third quarter.

Unrig Our Economy is running a $100,000 ad buy attacking Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) over the government shutdown. The ad accuses Lawler of shutting down the government instead of lowering health care costs.

— Max Cohen and Jake Sherman

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