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Happy Monday morning.

It’s deep in the August recess. The House and Senate are out of session. President Joe Biden is at Rehoboth Beach, Del., until Wednesday.

Wednesday is the six-month mark of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which also happens to be Ukraine’s Independence Day. Biden spoke Sunday with French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson about the current situation in Ukraine, according to the White House. This includes the ongoing crisis at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant in eastern Ukraine, the largest in Europe. Russian forces control the area around the plant, but Ukrainian operators are still running it. Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukrainian forces of shelling the area, potentially threatening “a large-scale catastrophe,” which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denies. Ukrainian officials counter Russia is preparing to cut off power from the facility, putting another huge strain on the war-torn region. Putin reportedly agreed on Friday to allow IAEA inspectors to visit the site following a call with Macron.

The quartet of western leaders also discussed “ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, the need to strengthen support for partners in the Middle East region, and joint efforts to deter and constrain Iran’s destabilizing regional activities.” The White House “has been seeking to reassure Israel that it hasn’t agreed to new concessions with Iran and a nuclear deal isn’t imminent,” Axios reported on Saturday, although Isreali officials remain concerned about this possibility. U.S. and European officials are reviewing Iran’s response to a proposed EU framework for a revised nuclear accord.  

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New York will have some big political news this week. The state’s congressional primaries on Tuesday include several high-profile battles, but none more important than that involving House Judiciary Committee Chair Jerry Nadler and Committee on Oversight and Reform Chair Carolyn Maloney in the 12th District.

This unprecedented battle of two committee chairs – with attorney Suraj Patel thrown in as a potential spoiler – came about after a state judge approved a new map in May. New York is losing a seat due to redistricting following the 2020 census, forcing veteran lawmakers like Nadler and Maloney to figure out where to run.

The latest poll shows Nadler with a sizable lead, and he’s got the New York Times’ endorsement, a big plus in this Manhattan-based district. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is backing him as well. Maloney is being supported by several women’s and pro-abortion rights groups.

Nadler and Maloney have remained largely civil during most of the contest, although the tone has grown more combative as Aug. 23 draws closer. Nadler has criticized Maloney for voting for the Iraq War and the Patriot Act, while Maloney argued she works harder than Nadler and has gotten more done for New York City. Maloney has also chafed at Nadler’s focus on saying he’s the only Jewish member left in New York’s House delegation.

Patel, who twice lost primary races to Maloney, has been claiming it’s time for “generational change” in Big Apple politics. “It’s 2022. It is time to turn the page on 1992,” Patel said at a recent debate. Nadler entered Congress in November 1992, while Maloney followed two months later.

Another key primary is in the 10th District, where former impeachment counsel Dan Goldman is leading a field that includes Rep. Mondaire Jones, New York State Assembly Member Yuh-Line Niou, New York City Councilmember Carlina Rivera, former Rep. Liz Holtzman, and New York Assembly Member Jo Anne Simon.

Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, has put $4 million of his own money into the race, far outspending his rivals. He’s also gotten a key endorsement from the New York Times. Goldman’s opponents have accused him of trying to “buy” the seat and are teaming up against the former federal prosecutor. Yet heading into Tuesday, Goldman is leading the field, according to the most recent public poll.

In the 17th District, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney – chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – is facing off against New York State Sen. Alessandra Biaggi. SPM, as he is known, is backed by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, while Biaggi is backed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and progressive groups.

New York voters will go to the polls in two special elections as well. One is a hard-fought contest that could give some insight into what will happen on Election Day, now only 77 days away, while the other will lead to one of the shortest congressional careers in Empire State history.

Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican Marc Molinaro are locked in a toss-up battle in New York’s 19th District as they seek to replace former Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado, who is now lieutenant governor. Barack Obama won this district in 2012, Donald Trump won it in 2016, and Joe Biden carried it in 2020. So yeah, it’s competitive.

Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive and former GOP gubernatorial candidate, is a slight favorite. Ryan, the Ulster County executive and Army combat veteran, has been focusing on the issue of abortion and the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Yet even if Ryan loses this special election on Tuesday, he could still end up in Congress. Ryan is on the ballot for the primary for the 18th District, while Molinaro is the GOP candidate for the November election in the 19th District. Democrats Josh Riley and Jamie Cheney are vying to take on Molinaro this fall for the seat.

In the 23rd District, Republican Joe Sempolinski is running to fill the vacancy left by former GOP Rep. Tom Reed, who resigned in May. Sempolinski – Reed’s former district director – is facing off against Democrat Max Della Pia in the special election to fill the remaining four months of Reed’s term. If Sempolinski wins in the GOP-leaning district, he’ll only serve in Congress until January as he isn’t running for this seat in the November general election. Two Republican candidates, Nick Langworthy and Carl Paladino, are vying for that nomination in Tuesday’s primary.

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Also this week: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the revised GDP for the 2nd quarter on Thursday. The “advance” estimate released last month showed the GDP contracting by 0.9%, the second straight quarter of negative growth. This set off a huge political debate over whether the United States is in a recession or not. Republicans said it was by the classic definition – two straight quarters of negative growth. Democrats and the White House, meanwhile, pointed to a number of mitigating factors, including record low unemployment and continued strong job growth, which aren’t indicative of a recession. Thursday’s release will have more complete data for everyone to fight over.

However, the American public clearly isn’t buying the Democrats’ argument, which is bad news for them heading into November, despite their recent run of legislative success in Congress.

An NBC News poll released on Sunday showed 68% of Americans believe the country is in a recession right now. Fully 50% of those polled said things will get worse economically before they get better (versus 26% the other way). Biden’s overall approval ratings are still deeply underwater (42% approve, 55% disapprove), although his ratings on the economy (40% approve, 56% disapprove) have gotten somewhat less terrible.

There was one important development in this poll for Democrats, however. “Threats to democracy” has emerged as the top issue for voters, followed by the cost of living, jobs and the economy, and immigration.

And on Friday morning, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will deliver his economic outlook at the Kansas City Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Powell’s speech will be parsed intensely for signs on how aggressively the central bank plans to continue raising interest rates as policymakers battle the worst inflation in 40 years. Powell will speak at 10 a.m.

Programming note: We will be coming out around 7 a.m. all week with Punchbowl News AM. We’re not publishing Midday and PM this week. Punchbowl News has its annual August recess next week. We won’t be publishing all week.

– John Bresnahan and Heather Caygle

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