A monumental week for President Trump

IN THIS EDITION

11 days until July 4: Byrd Bath and policy fights on deck

Democrats seek Iran message as Trump floats ‘regime change’

All eyes on Garcia in Oversight race

Thune-aligned group launches reconciliation ad campaign

THE TOP

11 days until July 4: Byrd Bath and policy fights on deck

Happy Monday morning.

Congress is back this week for what can only be described as a monumental five (or more) days in session.

House members left town on June 12. The Senate left Wednesday afternoon. Since then, the United States has joined Israel’s war against Iran, bombing three key nuclear sites and threatening additional attacks if Iran doesn’t end its pursuit of nuclear weapons. President Donald Trump also effectively called for a regime change. More on all this below.

Domestically, this is a massive week for Trump and his legislative agenda in Washington. There are just 11 days until July 4. That’s Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Trump’s deadline to get the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” signed into law. This is going to be a huge challenge that requires focus, discipline and, quite frankly, some luck.

All told, a lot needs to fall in place for Senate Republicans if they’re to meet Thune’s goal of kicking off the floor process by midweek.

What’s going down. The Senate is in the middle of the high-stakes Byrd Bath, with Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough deciding which provisions of the massive GOP package meet the strict guidelines for reconciliation.

MacDonough and her team have already thrown a lot out of the bill, including significant pieces of the Senate Banking Committee’s agenda, such as axing all funding for the CFPB.

Conservatives keep getting dealt other body blows as well. We learned overnight that a reworked version of Sen. Mike Lee’s (R-Utah) REINS Act was determined to violate the Byrd Rule. This was an effort to give Congress new authority to claw back federal regulations. The parliamentarian’s ruling is a huge blow for GOP leaders as well.

MacDonough also knocked out a Republican provision that limits judges from issuing nationwide injunctions, handing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer a win. MacDonough also axed language barring undocumented immigrants from receiving food stamps and forcing states to take on a larger share of SNAP costs.

All of this accounts for tens of billions of dollars in savings in the package, so Republicans are going to have a math problem that will cause immediate problems in the Senate, as well as angering House Republicans. The White House has been talking to House conservatives about the changes in the bill.

MacDonough did, however, uphold the Commerce Committee’s proposed ban on state-level AI regulation, which is tied to broadband funding. Yet this could cause big problems on the floor, where Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has already said he’ll partner with Democrats on an amendment to scrap the provision during the vote-a-rama.

The most important Byrd meeting happens today. The Senate Finance Committee, which has all of Republicans’ tax and Medicaid priorities, will hold arguments in front of the parliamentarian.

Senate Republicans expect to see updated legislative text ahead of tonight’s high-stakes GOP conference meeting. It’s possible the new text will include a stabilization fund for rural hospitals, a key ask of Republican senators concerned about the impacts of the Medicaid provider tax cuts.

Cross-chamber action. Things aren’t all hunky-dory between House and Senate Republicans. Remember that Johnson has spent the last few months saying that he hoped and expected the Senate to change very little in the House bill. That looks to be fading at the moment.

The speaker was caught flatfooted by massive changes to the provider tax in the bill. Johnson is especially attuned to the concerns over rural hospitals given his large rural Louisiana district. And House Republican leaders don’t think the Senate’s proposed stabilization fund will alleviate enough members’ concerns.

Still lingering out there is the massive chasm between the House and Senate on SALT. Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.), a former House member, has been trying to negotiate with Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.).

The SALT crew has said they won’t go below $40,000 or renegotiate their deal. But it seems the income threshold could be the focal point of any possible agreement. Again, blue-state House Republicans have incentive to hold out here. But we doubt they have the mettle to do so.

Also, there could be a revenue shortage that Senate Republicans have to deal with. On that front, Axis Research has a new poll that says Republicans should consider putting back in the bill a tobacco-related revenue raiser that the Senate stripped. Axis polled swing districts in New York, Nebraska and Pennsylvania — plus the state of Maine. This provision raises $12 billion over a decade. We wrote about this last week.

Key moments this week. Attorney General Pam Bondi will be in front of the House Appropriations Committee today at 2 p.m. and the Senate Appropriations Committee Wednesday.

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday and the Senate Banking Committee Wednesday. HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be in front of the House Energy and Commerce Committee Tuesday.

The House will vote on its first of the 12 FY2026 spending bills, MilCon-VA. These GOP-drafted bills are coming in at funding levels much lower than Democrats or the Senate will accept. But House GOP leaders say they’re determined to draw the line on spending.

OMB Director Russ Vought will testify before the Senate Appropriations Committee on Wednesday about the rescissions package. Appropriations Committee Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) is among the leading critics of the House-passed bill, and its fate is far from certain in the Senate.

What’s virtually guaranteed, though, is that the bill will need to be amended — either in committee or on the floor — to win enough GOP votes. Republicans will also need to pass it by July 18. Oh, and there’s another vote-a-rama at the end of it.

— Jake Sherman, Andrew Desiderio and Laura Weiss

Tomorrow at 9 a.m. ET, we’re having a conversation with Rep. Greg Murphy (R-N.C.). Punchbowl News Founder and CEO Anna Palmer will sit down with Murphy to discuss the news of the day and the future of medicine. There’s still time to RSVP!

WASHINGTON X THE WORLD

Democrats seek Iran message as Trump floats ‘regime change’

Top Democrats are struggling to come up with a unified message on President Donald Trump’s decision to bomb Iranian nuclear sites, even as the president upended his own party by suggesting a “regime change” may be needed in the Islamic Republic.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is calling for a War Powers Act vote, arguing that Congress needs to rein Trump in before he triggers a wider conflict in the Middle East. That vote could come as soon as this week.

We scooped on Sunday that Democratic Reps. Gregory Meeks (N.Y.), Adam Smith (Wash.) and Jim Himes (Conn.) — the ranking members of the Foreign Affairs, Armed Services and Intelligence panels — are drafting their own War Powers resolution.

Democratic aides described this as an alternative to a similar measure pushed by Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), although members won’t be discouraged from backing both. Massie has emerged as one of the loudest voices on the Republican side denouncing Trump’s attack on Iran, earning him a lengthy rebuke from the president on Truth Social.

Democratic leaders are also upset they received little to no information before Saturday’s bombing. Schumer got a call from Trump administration officials before the U.S. attack was launched, although he wasn’t even told what country was being targeted or how.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries “could not be reached until after, but he was briefed.” Himes and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.), top Democrats on the House and Senate Intelligence Committees, received no heads-up, although their GOP counterparts were informed of the impending operation.

A number of Democrats believe Schumer and Jeffries aren’t being forceful enough in opposing the Iran bombing. These Democrats are calling Trump’s decision to attack Iran “unconstitutional” and “illegal,” and are even talking about potentially impeaching him. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) called for Trump’s removal from office.

There are also Democrats who back Trump’s move. Pro-Israel Democrats privately complain that their party is so anti-Trump that Democrats refuse to support the attack even though it may have set back Iran’s nuclear weapons program by months or years.

Sen. Tim Kaine’s (D-Va.) War Powers resolution ripens on Friday. But with the Senate likely to be in the middle of budget reconciliation on the floor, GOP leaders have an incentive to allow a vote sooner. While this is all subject to a time agreement between Schumer and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, Kaine told us he expects a vote to happen before the July 4 recess.

“It’s not a vote on whether to go to war with Iran,” Kaine said of his push. “It’s ‘should we go to war with Iran without a vote in Congress?’”

While Kaine is likely to get most Senate Democrats on board, it’s unclear whether enough Republicans will join the effort. It only requires a simple majority for passage, though there likely won’t be enough support to override a presidential veto.

Seven GOP senators who are still serving in the chamber today voted for Kaine’s Iran War Powers resolution back in 2020, though the circumstances today are very different.

“I know I will have Republican support. How much is unclear,” Kaine said. “The day-to-day events will affect this… This is a very evolving situation.”

News: A group of 12 House Democratic veterans — many who served in Afghanistan and Iraq — is announcing they’ll support a War Powers Act resolution. In a letter led by Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.), the House Democrats don’t specify whether they’re backing the Massie resolution or the upcoming one from ranking Democrats on national security committees.

— John Bresnahan, Andrew Desiderio and Max Cohen

THE OVERSIGHT RACE

All eyes on Garcia in Oversight race

The battle for the top Democratic slot on the House Oversight Committee ends Tuesday — and it is Rep. Robert Garcia’s (D-Calif.) to lose.

The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee will convene to make its recommendation after votes this evening. The committee members will have an opportunity to ask questions of the candidates before voting on their pick, per a person familiar with the structure. On Tuesday morning the entire caucus will vote via secret ballot.

Garcia, a sophomore member, has been running on a pledge to bring generational change, but he has tried to make it subtle enough to not offend those in the caucus who value seniority. Garcia also comes armed with an endorsement from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and support in the California delegation, a crucial asset when so many key Democratic groups have not weighed in on the race.

In a contest that began as wide open, Garcia has become the favorite, according to multiple top Democrats and aides tracking the race.

His competition: Reps. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.), Kweisi Mfume (D-Md.) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas).

Of the other candidates, none of them seem to have broken through and no one has a clear base of support. Mfume and Crockett are both members of the Congressional Black Caucus, an uncomfortable dynamic that ensured the group would stay neutral. But even prominent individual members of the CBC have been strangely quiet, trapped between loyalty to their colleagues and their dedication to rewarding seniority.

There are a few factors that make this contest especially unpredictable. The House has just been on recess, making whipping more challenging. And there are four candidates running, which means that multiple ballots may be needed for someone to reach a majority.

The field. Lynch is the most senior member of the panel and has unsuccessfully run for the job before. Lynch is also the acting ranking member, and he emphasized that in his pitch.

House Democrats we talked to believe Lynch has the next clearest path after Garcia and could benefit from the support of more seasoned members who can’t stomach voting for a sophomore member trying to hop to the front of the line.

Mfume has also stressed his seniority and his extensive executive experience. After serving in Congress decades ago, Mfume left to lead the NAACP. When the late Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) died, Mfume ran for his old seat.

Crockett has pitched herself as someone who can excite the party’s base and use her online and social media presence to boost vulnerable members. Crockett said she’s raised $4.14 million for the House Democratic campaign arm and has over 400,000 emails on her fundraising list.

But Crockett has also leaned into the idea of impeaching President Donald Trump, a stance that hasn’t endeared her to members who have to run in districts that Trump carried. Meanwhile, Garcia told members he knows that the Oversight Committee can’t function solely as an anti-Trump entity.

Another big selling point for Garcia: he wants to share the bully pulpit. When it’s time to question officials, Garcia stressed that he would make sure other members had a chance to take center stage, according to people familiar with his pitch.

– Ally Mutnick

THE AIRWAVES

Thune-aligned group launches reconciliation ad campaign

News: One Nation, the outside issue advocacy group aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, is launching a minimum $10 million ad campaign boosting the Republican reconciliation package.

The first step in the summer opening salvo is a $1 million investment in Georgia and D.C.

One Nation is going after Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), calling on the most vulnerable Senate Democrat to back the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

“If Sen. Ossoff votes no on the working families tax cut, he’s voting yes on higher taxes, rising costs, jobs sent back to China,” the ad’s narrator says.

The spot is running on cable, broadcast and digital in Georgia. One Nation is also undertaking a texting campaign to supplement the ad effort.

One Nation is also running an ad, airing on cable and digital in D.C., which hails the reconciliation bill as a joint effort between Thune and President Donald Trump to avoid “the largest tax hike in history.”

The message guidance is clear: Relentlessly focus on the economic benefits of the GOP tax package. Senate Republicans have received briefings that indicate the tax cuts poll the best of any other policy portion of the package.

– Max Cohen

… AND THERE’S MORE

News: Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) is endorsing Rep. Angie Craig’s (D-Minn.) Senate bid.

“In the Senate, we need partners who will not only champion bold ideas but also will go everywhere and talk to everyone,” Baldwin said in a statement. Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Andy Kim (D-N.J.) have recently backed Craig.

Tax hire: Jamie Cummins has joined House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s staff as counsel, adding an experienced tax hand to the House GOP leadership team.

Cummins moved over from the Senate, where he was senior tax counsel for the Finance Committee under Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho). Cummins also has deep roots in Scalise’s home state. He grew up in Louisiana and is an alum of Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-La.) office.

The hire comes after big staffing changes on Scalise’s team, with two senior aides leaving for jobs in the administration and private sector.

— Laura Weiss

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