A trove of campaign-finance data due Tuesday night brought the clearest look yet at the 2026 landscape. We sorted through hundreds of filings from House and Senate candidates covering the second quarter of 2025, which runs from April 1 to June 30.
Here are our biggest takeaways and what they tell us about the midterms:
The House. Endangered incumbents from both parties posted impressive Q2 numbers, but Republicans were a bit stronger.
By our count, 25 of the 32 GOP incumbents on Democrats’ 2026 target list raised more than $700,000. And 10 of them raised more than $1 million, including Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Ken Calvert (R-Calif.).
Of the 25 Democrats on the NRCC’s target list, 11 raised more than $700,000 and only one raised more than $1 million: Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.).
This doesn’t mean that Republicans will keep their majority. But it does mean they’re putting themselves in a good financial position ahead of what could be a tough election.
The weakest fundraisers on both parties’ target lists were those who haven’t had to consistently run tough races, such as Reps. Darren Soto (D-Fla.), Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) and Cory Mills (R-Fla.). Members like these are most likely to be the ones caught off guard in a tough cycle.
Mills was slightly outraised by a challenger, as was Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.). In Davis’ case, his GOP opponent self-funded.
Texas. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) raised just $804,000 in Q2. Before the deadline Cornyn said he raised $3.9 million between his campaign account and his joint fundraising committee — which has different donation limits — but he wouldn’t give the breakdown behind that total. Now we know.
Cornyn does have a respectable $5.9 million in the bank but raising less than one million dollars for his campaign account during the quarter isn’t a good sign. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton raised $2.9 million in Q2.
Retirement tea leaves. Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) raised $723,000 in Q2, also a low number for an in-cycle incumbent in a potentially competitive race. Ernst tops Senate retirement watch lists.
— Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) raised $2.4 million and has $5.3 million banked. That’s not a huge number but it’s actually more than she raised during the second quarter of 2019. If Collins runs, she’ll have plenty of money being spent on her behalf in a must-have Senate seat for Republicans.
— On the House side, a few swing-seat Democratic incumbents also posted some low numbers.
Rep. Dina Titus (D-Nev.) raised just $220,000; Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) raised $412,000 and Rep. Jim Costa (D-Calif.) raised $256,000. Everyone is running until they’re not, but these numbers could portend retirement.
Other fundraising news: The NRCC raised $18.1 million in June, for a Q2 total of $32.2 million. Their June total is a 46% increase from June 2023, per the committee.
— Anthony Cruz contributed to this reporting.
